By Andrew Aziz

With a little more than a week left before the 15th UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP), few observers are willing to commit to predictions on the outcome.

Those hopeful that Copenhagen would be a watershed moment for climate change got a dose of reality following the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit when 21 heads of state sunk earlier hopes of a binding treaty in favor of a substantially watered down ‘political agreement’.

The APEC meeting – which took place from 8 to 15 November in Singapore – has been pegged as a moment of recalibration as far as expectations for Copenhagen are concerned. With Copenhagen fast approaching, APEC leaders instead opted to back a political deal proposed by Danish Prime Minister Lars Rasmussen, who flew to Singapore to discuss the status of climate change talks with the group.

But room for optimism has appeared in recent days as global emissions heavyweights – including US President Barack Obama, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper – announced that they will be making an appearance at the COP, thus indicating their readiness to jump in the water with the rest of the world and signaling they may actually have something substantial to declare.

All eyes on US commitments

On the heels of the APEC meeting, and perhaps to assure concerned observers that the global process was not on the brink of failure, US President Barack Obama, gave his most significant pledge to continue working towards a comprehensive legal agreement on climate change.

He proposed a new pact that would require rigid targets on mid-term emissions from developed countries, “pledges” from emerging economies to curb their emissions growth, finance to support mitigation in developing countries broadly, and a set of institutions to ensure that such promises are kept.

“Our aim…is not a partial accord or a political declaration but rather an accord that covers all of the issues in the negotiations and one that has immediate operational effect,” he said. The operational language is particularly resonant for developing countries who have long claimed that developed countries have not delivered on their global promises captured in the UN Convention.

Obama has been reluctant to speak forcefully on climate change commitments, largely due to the fact that the US Senate has yet to pass climate legislation and is not expected to debate its current draft bill before the spring of next year. Obama had earlier suggested he might appear at the Copenhagen conference if a deal was imminent and his presence would help push it to a conclusion. The downgrading of a legal outcome to a political agreement put both his participation and the possibility of a robust global agreement in doubt.

But in a surprise announcement, the US released its climate targets on 25 November. “In the context of an overall deal in Copenhagen that includes robust mitigation contributions from China and the

other emerging economies, the President is prepared to put on the table a US emissions reduction target in the range of 17 percent below 2005 levels in 2020 and ultimately in line with final U.S. energy and climate legislation,” read a statement from the White House.

While the release of the US targets is noteworthy, critics have pointed out that the targets outlined in the statement reflect the lower end of the national draft legislation currently under consideration by the US Congress and that comments referring to “China and other emerging economies” may suggest that the US is stepping away from their commitment to help finance adaptation in the developing world.

The statement also confirmed that Obama would make a one day appearance in the first week of the COP en route to Oslo to accept the Nobel Peace Prize, which has buoyed hopes of many for a positive outcome from the COP.

“I am pleased the American president will visit Copenhagen,” said Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, whose country is hosting the conference. “The strong commitment of the American president to the climate change issue is very valuable.”

But Rasmussen and others close to the negotiations have expressed disappointment with the timing and duration of Obama’s visit, as the final decision is expected to take place closer to the end of the conference.

Two step approach moving forward

The current approach to Copenhagen agreed to by APEC leaders – and later backed by the European Union – encompasses a two-step approach that includes both a strong, action-based political agreement and the promise of a comprehensive pact in the near future.

“Even if we may not hammer out the last dots of a legally binding instrument, I do believe a political binding agreement with specific commitment to mitigation and finance provides a strong basis for immediate action in the years to come,” Rasmussen said following the APEC meeting.

Rasmussen proposed the new game plan to reach a binding agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which would include a 5-8 page document with “precise language of a comprehensive political agreement,” followed by continued negotiations to be concluded preferably before the next Conference of the Parties set for December 2010 in Mexico City.

Many developing countries and climate advocates argue that the shift in goals is an attempt to save face in light of the improbability of a robust agreement to address climate change in Copenhagen, as was initially intended.

European officials said they were not surprised with the announcement, but pushed for governments to make concrete progress at the summit, and not to treat it simply as a delay.

“We shouldn’t set the bar too low,” said Christoph Steegmans, German deputy government spokesman. “Copenhagen must become an important milestone on the way to a decisive accord next year. Nobody can shirk their responsibility.”

China announces cuts in “carbon intensity”

Political goodwill in the form of Obama’s visit to Copenhagen was followed shortly thereafter by an announcement that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao would also make the trip to Copenhagen. As the world’s largest polluter China holds a central position in climate negotiations. Many developed countries – particularly the US – are concerned that countries like China and India will not be subjected to binding commitments, which will water down the effectiveness of any global agreement. The US and China have been undergoing bilateral talks on the issue for the past year or so and it was considered top of the agenda in President Obama’s recent visit to Beijing.

For their part, these emerging economies are looking for substantial financial incentives from the developed world to support their transitions to a ‘low carbon‘ reality. The current figure often floated by China and other developing countries for financing emissions reductions is 1 percent of developed countries’ yearly gross domestic product (GDP) – a number regularly dismissed as too high by developed countries. Other experts, such as the renowned climate economist, Nicholas Stern, promote a higher 2 percent level of support, arguing that it is worth the certainly of achieving climate goals, economically feasible, and cost effective in the long run.

One day following the release of the US targets, China announced that it would cut its “carbon intensity” — the amount of greenhouse gas it emits per unit of gross domestic product — by 40-45 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. Unlike standard emissions reduction targets, which aim to reduce overall emissions, the Chinese plan aims to slow the rate at which emissions grow.

It is not yet clear when the Chinese Premier will make his appearance in Copenhagen.

A meeting of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) taking place from 27-29 November in Trinidad will also attempt to produce a strong statement on climate change ahead of Copenhagen. The meeting is unusual due to the presence of other world leaders – including UN chief Ban Ki-moon, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Danish Prime Minister Lars Rasmussen – who are meant to help move the climate change agenda forward.

“It could be a springboard for a successful Copenhagen,” said British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. “It will prove the worth of the Commonwealth, that we can bring together countries to work together for a common solution.”

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