Ethiopian Review

BISSAU – Guinea-Bissau’s election on Sunday to replace its slain president will be a test for West Africa’s ability to stop the retreat of democracy as well as for a state destabilised by drug smugglers and army rivalries.

The fact the vote is happening at all is something of an achievement within four months of President Joao Bernardo “Nino” Vieira being shot dead and after the killing of a top contender and another senior politician during the campaign.
Drug traffickers

The winner faces the challenge of reforming fractured armed forces and pulling the state back from failure, weakened by the influence of Latin American drug traffickers, who use the swampy country of 1.5 million as a staging point to Europe.

“The election at least shows they have adhered to the constitution,” said Kissy Agyeman-Togobo of IHS Global Insight. “What will really be the test is what comes thereafter.”

Guinea-Bissau’s broader significance stems not only from the risk of instability spreading to areas such as the adjacent Casamance region of Senegal, scene of an on-off insurgency.

After coups in Mauritania and Guinea, and with a festering political crisis in Niger, a smooth election in Guinea-Bissau would be a boost for West African countries keen to show they have broken from a past of putsches, war and chaos.

Positive story

“There is some concern at slippage,” said Alex Vines, head of the Africa programme at think-tank Chatham House.

“The positive story that I see is the role of the Economic Community of West African States and the Ecowas commission, which has been active in a number of these situations.”

The trade bloc pledged support for Guinea-Bissau this week and urged respect for constitutions across the region, where improvements in governance and stability helped increase foreign investments before the global financial crisis.

Political analysts believe there may be no outright winner among the 11 candidates in the ballot of around 600,000 voters on Sunday, meaning a second round would be held.

- Reuters