Ethiopian Review Editorial
Woyanne is currently engaged in a shooting war on multiple fronts. The worst fighting is going on in Ogaden with ONLF and in neighboring Somalia with the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). The news coming from these fronts are encouraging — the Woyanne military is getting its nose bloodied by the ICU and the ONLF freedom fighters. Woyanne is now about to open another front in the north — Badme. Woyanne and Shabia are amassing hundreds of thousands of troops in the area. According to various sources, a major war could start any time. The question for Ethiopians, particularly those of us who wish to see a united Ethiopia free from the Woyanne tribal junta, is what should be our stand?
There are two options:
1) Do not take side in the absolutely senseless war, or
2) Take an active stand against Woyanne by helping Eritrean, ONLF, OLF, and all the other anti-Woyanne forces. An active stand against Woyanne includes agitating troops not to fight, causing damages to Woyanne supply lines, etc. Blockading the road from Addis Ababa to Tigray alone would cripple the Woyanne military machine.
Ethiopian Review encourages the second option. Here is why:
1) Woyanne is the real enemy of Ethiopia that has left us land-locked. On top of that, it has been committing one atrocity after another against the people of Ethiopia for the past 17 years. In several parts of Ethiopia, such as Ogaden and Gambella, Woyanne forces annihilated whole villages of people. What is going on currently in Ogaden is a genocide by any standard. Not looking at the pictures of dead women and children whose heads are splattered by high caliber bullets from Woyanne helicopter gunships, whose bodies pulverized by Woyanne rockets does not lessen the horror of Woyanne atrocities. Woyanne must be stopped from carrying out these atrocities by any means necessary.
2) It is not the Eritrean regime, not the ONLF, not the OLF, not the ICU that had thrown over 100,000 Ethiopians in Zeway, Shoa Robit, Donkoro Chaka and other disease-infested concentration camps after stealing the May 2005 elections. It is Woyanne that ignored the will of the people and enslaved 70 million Ethiopians through its blood thirsty military machine that is currently busy wreaking havoc in Ogaden and Somalia. Woyanne has no mandate to govern Ethiopia, has no right to enslave us and must be removed by any means necessary.
3) As Woyanne moneyman Sebhat Nega himself said a few months ago on a Woyanne radio station, Woyanne has done more than Shabia for the separation of Eritrea from Ethiopia, leaving 70 million people landlocked. Notwithstanding the Woyanne propaganda, the impending Woyanne-Shabia war does not advance the national interest of Ethiopia an iota. It is war over a small plot of land that has no strategic significance for Ethiopia. It is a war that is intended to divert attention from Woyanne’s internal political crisis and the Somalia quagmire. Ethiopia can get back her sea outlet through a negotiated, mutually beneficial settlement with Eritreans. The only obstacle to such a negotiated settlement with Eritreans is the illegitimate Woyanne regime. For this reason alone, Ethiopian pro-unity forces need to help Shabia defeat Woyanne.
Let’s ignore the Woyanne propaganda for a moment and be frank with each other. Which is the lesser evil? Shabia or Woyanne? Both are brutal dictators, but who is currently tormenting Ethiopians? Both will not bring democracy to Ethiopia, but whose defeat will present an opportunity for change in Ethiopia?
If Woyanne wins against Shabia and all its opponents, for the people of Ethiopia it would mean more slavery at the hands of an emboldened Woyanne. If Shabia wins, it would mean no more Woyanne’s brutal rule. The best case scenario is for Shabia to break the backbone of Woyanne, which will force it to:
1) Immediately pull out of Somalia,
2) Pull its forces out of Ogaden, Oromia, and other regions of Ethiopia and rush them to Tigray to protect its base of power,
3) Seek reconciliation with Ethiopian opposition forces.
The most likely outcome
If Woyanne starts war with Shabia, this time it will lose for the following reasons:
1) Those troops who are not hardcore members of Woyanne will not fight the way they did in the 1998-2000 war. They will surrender or put down their weapons and run to Sudan. Even better, they could turn their guns against Woyanne officers.
2) Shabia will not engage Woyanne in a conventional battle of troops against troops, and thanks against thanks this time. What Shabia will do is let Woyanne come deep into the Eritrean territory, even all the way to Asmara. Then engage Woyanne’s over-stretched military in a protracted, guerrilla style warfare. With a well-coordinated propaganda campaign, most non-Tigrean soldiers could desert in massive numbers. Even Tigreans who are not hard core Woyannes would hesitate to fight. After all, what did Woyanne bring to the people of Tigray except more suffering, more war, more repression, and more poverty? Most of the developments in Tigray are benefiting only Woyanne members who are not more than 200,000 Tigreans. By all accounts, the 7 million Tigreans have not benefited from the Woyanne rule what so ever.
Most dictatorships have terrible ends. Hitler, Mussolini, Saddam, Chauchesku, Charles Taylor, to mention a few. With the way things are going on in Somalia, Woyanne’s end is already becoming messy, ugly and horrifying.
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FORUM | 142 Comments
Good Analysis, Elias.
By the way, what should be the role of AFD in htis fight?
[Reply]
November 9th, 2007 at 3:15 PM
Elias,
You are an amazing guy and you hate weyane for real.
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November 9th, 2007 at 3:18 PM
The enemy of my enemy is my friend – I hope and pray that Eritrea come out victorious and prove the woyane sponsors wrong.
I also wish the Ethiopian armed opposition coordinates the liberation offensive with the Eritreans. Nothing matters at this point in our history than the defeat and destruction of the Woyane occupier forces. Civil disobedience, protest and other forms of struggle must also be coordinated to bring down this blood thirsy dictator of Ethiopia.
My christmas wish is to see a liberated Ethiopia from the yoke of tyranny and close this tragic part of our history by dragging the dictator on the streets of Addis – a good beginning for the establishment of the Democratic Republic of Ethiopia!!!
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November 9th, 2007 at 3:21 PM
Elias,
Very good observation and analysis. No matter what we should support who is trying to crush the head of the serpent.
Death to the Tigrian Tribal war lords!
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November 9th, 2007 at 3:26 PM
Dear ethiorivew I am one of your admire but I really do not like it the way you write this report, even we hate woyanne we love Ethiopia, do you think by helping Eritrea or ONLF or OLF which they want separation from the rest of Ethiopia can we get freedom, can we see the original Ethiopia again I do not think so. Please think about it
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November 9th, 2007 at 3:31 PM
ER,
I respect most of your opinions but I strongly disagree with your statement “Take an active stand against Woyanne by helping Eritrean”. This is outrageous! The current Ertirean government (Shabia) is no friend of Ethiopia and for a peacefull co-existence of Ethiopia & Eritrea, both Woyanne & Shabia have to go. We shouldn’t support Woyanne’s war, but we shouldn’t support Shabia in any wa either.
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November 9th, 2007 at 3:33 PM
Red Light ,
It needs a deep analysis ,
It hard for me to reach such a simple argument .When woyane crosses to Blue Nile ,in 1983 E.C , I was among the people who well come them warmly ,as I was a kid , but now I need a deep thought and reasoning to reach the same argument you said , as it is difficult for me to decide whether the aforementioned groups/countries will be bring peace and equally to Ethiopia or not !
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November 9th, 2007 at 3:35 PM
As much as I support all means of struggle against woyane. i hate to see the victory of woyane the econd which is shabya. I don’t want shabya to win against ethiopian soldier. it doesn’t matter who send them to the front but they are Ethiopians. My wish will be when woyane send them to fight to turn around and fight woyane it self but not to loose an inch of ground to woyane sponsor (shabya)
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November 9th, 2007 at 3:41 PM
Elias, whether we like it or not, you have spoken the truth!! Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia will only get better without TPLF and the so called EPRDF gang!!! Lets coordinate our effort to remove these mass murderers!!!
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November 9th, 2007 at 3:42 PM
I am under the cloud, it is very hard to see a light at the end of the tunnel from all these situations. Synthysizing this all cracks my head. It is not as easy as it looks. What if Eritrea comes out with victory? will Ethiopia get access to sea? What about if ONLF wins, Will there be united Ethiopia? What about Woyane Wins? We will be in hell as usual. It is a question of various varient. It needs to resolve each and single issue into componants and analyse accordingly. Realities and emotion don’t go together.
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November 9th, 2007 at 3:45 PM
Why are we fighting such a futile war all over again??? We have already won this war!! Are we capable of changing Isayas’ regime that actually has militirized the whole nation?
Elias,
Without any effort to weaken the TPLF, these criminals will bring themselves to their own demise!! Min ale belugn!!!
Meles ena Bereket akbezbizoachewal!!
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November 9th, 2007 at 3:47 PM
I have never seen such a horrendous analysis ER. You pray for the defeat of Ethiopia? You guys are all pathetic! Needless to say more.
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November 9th, 2007 at 3:47 PM
You are right – the defeat of Woyane is victory for every Ethiopian person – be it in Asmara, somalia, or Oromo or OLF. The news that coming from mogadishu is very encouraging as not only woyane lost so many of them – but – countless of woyanes are captured alive.
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November 9th, 2007 at 3:55 PM
Eliase you are very imaginative….Issaise will protect Asmara to last blood drop. He will let Ethiopia even capture Assab and like you said a long war take rot….weyanes are fool, if unorganized UIC could bog them down like, how could they face Eritrea? Eritrea has 300k soldiers, as many tanks as Ethiopia has, even now thanks to the Arab allies, its air force is much more stronger compared to the previous war. Infact now according to some, Oromo pilots or Amhara pilots will not trusted to fly, if they did they might turn the Menilik palace into ash. The other scenario is that now Shabia owns multiple of airplanes ranging from Mig 29 to SU 27
So it won’t be easy…
having said this, let me tell you the truth behind the current alarmism coined by weyanes and US…they hate the commissions decision to offer a document for virtual demarcation and their trying to every thing to delay this decision. that is why they r cutting phone lines, US embassy in Addis issuing safety warnings for its subjects an ICG issuing statements …all this orchestrated by weyanes and their boss-USA…however, they unintentionally are giving for shabia a green light to start a war for which it has been preparing for long time…so whether they like it or not the war is on irreversible path now. And, for intensive purposes, weyanes will loose this war both militarily and politically…so at the end indeed emmama Ethiopia will win!!
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November 9th, 2007 at 4:00 PM
You went too far…..i don’t agree with your analysis
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November 9th, 2007 at 4:00 PM
Elias, you make me sick man. Just because you hate woyane that doesn’t mean you should be against Ethiopian military in general. It is obvious that Meles regrets what he has done with Eritrea in past. If he decides to go to war with Eritrea, I have no doubt that Ethiopian will come out victorious, because victory is in our blood. So cheering for OLF, ONLF, and UIC is not a way to solve our internal problem. No matter how much we hate our leaders, they are sometimes in the right direction. Even though I don’t like war this time if Meles decide to invade Eritrea, I will support him a hundred percent. Because this time around, it is not going to be about Badme or other tribal issues, it matter of whether or not Ethiopia has the right access to the Red Sea port (Assab). All other organizations you are supporting or cheering for are not for Ethiopia, they are groups who wish to see the fall Ethiopia. It’s just that simple.
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November 9th, 2007 at 4:25 PM
I like the analysis; however, I have a question. Do you think, if the government in Ethiopia (Woyanne we all ‘hate’) loses control of the country, the country remains settled? Don’t you think that the so many enemies of Ethiopia (economically desperate Eritrea, Egypt, the real terrorists…) involve and make a big mess? What if the woyanne introduced division on the line of ethnicity blasts…isn’t that troubling?
I really am scared of these things. I think I prefer removing woyane peacefully as CUD, OEDF…are trying to do.
BTW, you block some of my comments, please don’t; I am one of those real Ethiopian concerned. I want to discuss issues openly before we make possibly wrong conclusions. Take side with Ethiopian poor and do the analysis based off that.
Peace to Ethiopia
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November 9th, 2007 at 4:26 PM
You’re absolutely right on the money, about the whole woyanne
monkey businesses. If we- as Ethiopians take sides, we may wake up to be enslaved without our will for many years to come.
Woyannes are already over stretched beyond their capacity. The children they ship to bloody deserts must eat, sleep, have constantat refillings with arms, which woyannes economy would not for long time. When supply dry out majority of boys would surrender in masses, which would give leverage for EPPF/ OLF/ONLF and so on.
All Eritrea has to do is to be resilliant and extend the war for one year. Meanwhile real activies within the empire would explode, from angry parents who lose son and daughters to the war, to dessents who seek change of political spheres, to unpaid regimes employees, the unhappy citizens would join in.
If there is any hope for majority citizens of Ethiopia, Northern war must be active. Educating all societies within Ethiopia must come alive throuhg clandestine radios, papers,TV’S, via families, friens to speed up all hell to engulf woyanne at the same time.
We must leave, all behind and support Eritrea to come on top of woyanne invasion. I personaly admire your enlightened, comprehensive view to where we need to side. Side with the enemy that has no shred of will to enslave us forever. Eritrea has no plan to loot and root us, woyannes have done what fascist Mussoloni had done.
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November 9th, 2007 at 4:37 PM
Elias. your essay clearly states that shabia’s victory over woyanne’s army is a victory to Ethiopia. it is not really a victory for us, it is insult instead. by the way did you have any relation with the Eritrean regime.
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November 9th, 2007 at 4:42 PM
Elias, you are doing good so far in the fight against the facist melese zenawi regiem. i agree with your analysis, but not the point regarding shabia, against shabia we need to stand together what ever the case may be, by the way standing togther against shabia means standing togther against meles. sabia has nothing to do with the innocent and peace loving eritrean province people.
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November 9th, 2007 at 4:43 PM
i have nothing to say, you said it all.splendid indeed!
it is not without reason why we must support the eritrians today.
1.at first, the currenet erithrian regime had a green light in 1991 if they had a wish to govern or to enslave ethiopia at the time,but they didn’t because they had their pre definde objectiv.that is to libirate their land, this means they are steadyfast to what they say and they are reliable than the woyyanes that changes overnight if they think they can get something today without any analysis of it’s future consequence for the people they claim they stand for.
2.wayyenes are the same group with shabia they are not diffirent in any way to chose wayyane than shabia.
they two were ethiopians .except the shabia want to face evry thing alone with out any bodys support and the woyyane lack conffidence and ability to survive alone and became prasite on ethiopian people.
3.it is very difficult for eritria to try to control ethiopia by any means as woyyane did and will do if they win the battel anymore so we must chose the less bad than the worst
moreover we must support the one who have truth and speaks truth eventhough it hurts as for amoment. the shabia says we kill and they kill.but the woyyanes say we never kill but they kill in hundreds.shabia don’t speak about democracy and don’t practic it either ,but the woyyanes songs evry day about democrcy but never did even once in 17 years.
the truth will prevail! and we are on the side of the truth.
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November 9th, 2007 at 4:48 PM
If Shabya and Woyanne bloodshed eachother, it is good; because, both criminal organizations were and are the twin enemies of Ethiopia and Eethiopians;and besides, the problems that they created will be solved if both of them are defeated by Ethiopians.
There are a couple of sayings:- a) for a rainy day b) for a sunny day.
Well, there are a well fed and well trained Meles Zinawi’s army hidden but ready to march into Asmara. These elite forces have everything to destroy Shabya’s army and know the in-and-out of Asmara; when the battle start, the vanguard will the army which is composed of the rest of Ethiopia. In the murderous eyes of Zinawi, the above mentioned composition is nothing but ready to purished; once this is occured, the elite army of Meles Zinawi will advance forward as the land mines are cleared by the composition army.
Clearly, the elite army of meles zinawi will be engaged in a hand-to-hand battle with Shabya and the heat will go on.
There is a possibility of Meles’s army would be defeated; then what will be followed is Meles and his crime family will run to the place where think it will be reserved for a sunny day. For now, just in case, Meles has reserved elite army for a rainy day.
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November 9th, 2007 at 4:50 PM
Well, who do you want to die for you? Get real.We don’t want war again. Why should soldiers on both sides die? Please have am iota of humanity.
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November 9th, 2007 at 4:51 PM
My hope is that there won’t be war. The Woyane would have to have lost their mind to start one. I just can see Eritrea starting it.
Of course, given the insanity and indecency of the Woyane, I would not be completely shocked if the Woyane initiates some sort of military confrontation with Eritrea. If this happens, we should all voice our disapproval. Another destructive war isn’t in the of Ethiopia.
While I agree with Ethiopian Review that a weakened Woyane is good for Ethiopia, I don’t believe there will be any winners if war breaks out.
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November 9th, 2007 at 4:56 PM
Let’s all pray hard that dictators days are numbered.
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November 9th, 2007 at 4:58 PM
Do you think it will be better for Ethiopian unity if Shabia takes over? History tells us what we wish and what we get are far apart of our dreams. I am not fond of weyane, yet our wishes may create the demise of Ethiopia, as we know it. Be careful of what you wish!
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November 9th, 2007 at 5:03 PM
Elias,
You conveniently left out the third option – peaceful struggle to bring about change in Ethiopia. In other words, the Kinjit way. Supporting one tribalist over the other, and worth yet siding with Shabia, the sworn enemy of Ethiopia, does not bode well for the Ethiopian democratic struggle. “Gulecha bilewawet wot ayatafitim”, if you know what I mean. Let me ask you one question: God forbid, say one of your favorites – OLF, ONLF, Shabia – get the upper hand and succeed in bringing down Woyane, which I very much doubt. Then what? Are they overnight going be democrats or pro-Ethiopia? NO! They are worse than Woyane. Please put aside your analysis which is totaly based on hatered, which is understandable given what these devil woyanes are doing to innocent people, and stick to the Kinjit way. Peace and democracy for Ethiopians!!!!!!!!
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November 9th, 2007 at 5:09 PM
Responding to Kechinu, you need to read the article twice to understand what Elias talking about untill that stay on the side.
Elias, I agree 100% because it will demoralize Woyane solider and it will unite all freedom fighters that means Woyanes life it will be short like a dog.
So what we have to do is to set up a meeting to unite all freedom fighters to put their differences on side for the sake of Ethiopia and to fight to death with Woyane.
Elias, Please you have the connection make it happen to unite all freedom fighters then we don’t mind to sacrifice our money and life.
God bless Ethiopia! God destroy Woyane!!!
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November 9th, 2007 at 5:10 PM
Elias,
You’re right on the money. No mincing of words here. We need to ally with everyone opposed to Woyanne — especially Eritreans — to get Meles and his Western masters off our back.
There should be no confusion about this. TPLF and its leadership are the No. 1 enemies of Ethiopia. The sooner they go, the better.
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November 9th, 2007 at 5:12 PM
elias, i do not want you to think ,I am in the baptist church. I say amen,amen,amen,amen.God bless you.
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November 9th, 2007 at 5:13 PM
Elias:
Well, I am with you about crashing Woyanne. However, I have a problem with your support of Essaya’s Shabia. Let us not forget that Woyanne was strengthened and brought to power by Shabia. Shabia and Woyanne are both the cause for what is happening in our country. Furthermore your analysis is based on emotions rather than historical facts. So about that.
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November 9th, 2007 at 5:14 PM
You know, most people I talked to say that the only reason they visit your web page is because you have the latest information concering Ethiopia. Other wise, a lot of them say you are border-line crazy, saddist and abnoxious individual. Now, I believe why. This writing proves it all. You need to be ashamed of yourself as an Ethiopian. You blamed Woyane for killing 100,000 people. and yet, you are ready to accept the sacrfice and defeat of Ethiopian Army, which means you want them to be massacared at the hands of Eritreans. The idea itself should anger everybody. No one is the Enemy of Ethiopia more than YOU. Why don’t you join ONLF, OLF, or the Eritrean Army. You are doing the same thing with your writing.
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November 9th, 2007 at 5:28 PM
I am not supporting either of them. OLF/Shabia are not diffrent from Woyane. Elias, I chose the first option, `Do not take side in the absolutely senseless war’
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November 9th, 2007 at 5:33 PM
No matter what, woyane is disintigrating Ethiopia.
shabia is not less than woyane for the distruction of Ethiopia.Elias, this time you went more than what an Ethiopian is supposed to suggest. I am againest the woyane politics from the begining, but that does not mean I do support woyane’s current enemy Shabia. For me both are a treat to the Ethiopian people and peace in the region.Therefore do not isolate yourself from the main stream Ethiopian politics. We do need to think logically what comes next not only to get ride of our dictators.
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November 9th, 2007 at 5:35 PM
ኤልያስ፦
አሁን ገና አጣብቂኝ ውስጥ ከተትከን።ሻእብያን ደግፉ፣ወያኔ እንዲወድቅ? ላም እሳት ወለደች፣ እንዳትልሰው አቃጠላት፣ እንዳትተወው ልጇ ሆነባት ነው ነገሩ። ሁለቱም ክፉዎች ቢሸነፉ እወዳለሁ። ካልሆነ ግን አሰብ ይምጣ።
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November 9th, 2007 at 5:37 PM
I think God is going to serve justice to the innocent blood spilled by this evil tigre warlords and make them eat each other. And that is a blessed opportunity for Ethiopia to get rid of the Tigre warlord meles the monster. But I am not going to take sides since they are criminals with different sides of the same coin But we should encorage the war at any cost because when this monster dictators eat each other Miracles happen they both could die. Haleluah.
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November 9th, 2007 at 5:41 PM
Elias, you are great man. You are the only person so far who tells the truth but the TRUTH. Unlike others the so called educator, who always playing with poor people mind and their selfish interest to come to the power, who have no pain for the suffering of poor peasants, you are great man. We will support you in any way for telling the truths far as woyane concern, their day is numbered. Not a single human being should support this murderer regime who slaughtered unaccountable innocent people. This woyane regime by any means don’t represent Ethiopia at all. Woyane needs Ethiopia only when they need help period. Other than that woyane has no feeling of Ethiopia. Woyanes government told us already they will protect Eritrea than Ethiopia. So why we have to support and protect this crazy regime from falling apart? Who ever comes to destroy woyane, should get moral support. Woyanes are hiding under Ethiopia name, but their hearts aren’t Ethiopian. Let God destroy this evil creature by any means.
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November 9th, 2007 at 6:05 PM
Elias do hate woyana in deed. but the word “freedom fighters (onlf)” caught me off guard. Lets make the fight with woyana, one that finishes dictatorships to its last but never make it a means of loosing our Ethiopia to separatists.
I have not once heard any good thing from ONLF of good thing about Ethiopa. I have not been convinced woyana is for Ethiopia ether by any means both of them are disasters .
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November 9th, 2007 at 6:08 PM
This editorial is far-sited and deserves the attention of everybody who wishes to see a long-lasting peace for that region. Particularly, it is knocking the door of those of us who love Ethiopia, but do not differentiate the friend from the enemy. When the Wayane destroys lives in somalia, Ogaden, Oromia, Amhara, etc., it should be condemned by all of us, not only the affected parties. It is if and only if we could stand side by side and confront/oppose a minority ethinc Wayane, that is a common enemy, that we lay a foundation for a promising future, where we could live in a democratic country that we all sholud care for. Remember, the Appartied regime in South Africa ended not only by the struugles of Black South Africans and the ANC, but others including people form the White minority that ruled at the time.
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November 9th, 2007 at 6:09 PM
Elias
What can I say you are a true patriot – in the face of so many hypocrites, liars and political prostitutes – You stand for a principle – I see tomorrows’ leaders of democratic Ethiopia in the likes of you!!
Keep up the good work – You are certainly inspiring me and hope inspiring millions of Ethiopians who only wish a DEMOCRATIC ETHIOPIA SOON!
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November 9th, 2007 at 6:24 PM
Ato Elias IMHO,
The enemy of my enemy is NOT necessarily my friend. I suggest one need a keen observation of the entire situation before rushing to conclusion.
Tsehay Demeke
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November 9th, 2007 at 6:25 PM
Dear ER,
I don’t think that you have come up with a sound analysis and plausible recommendation this time. Look, geniune Ethiopians are peacefully demanding for the rule of law, freedom, peace and democracy in Ethiopia. Woyane, however, is trying its best along its own way, igniting multiple war fronts in the region. This is what it can think of …. its level best!
You know, I feel that this is a delebrate strategy by woyane at the verge of its collapse. Woyane is designing a kind of bad “homework” for Ethiopians/East Africans so that we keep on fighting once it is gone.
Your comment would seem to me as a kind of early call for us to start working out this “homework”… while woyane is still in place.
I would appreciate if you rather insist us on keeping up with the peaceful and legal struggle strategies so that: woyane will colapse-moving in its way; the region would regain its lasting peace; Ethiopia regains its unity and we have our democratic Ethiopia.
With Respect,
Yirga
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November 9th, 2007 at 6:59 PM
Elias
I like your comment but it is not legitmate to support Shabia.I don’t see any difference between the two.Both of them are the enemies of our country.Eli I understand your suffering for the sake of Ethiopia and its people,but we should not see the atrocity and suffering of ouer people.So we need to see the last assault of weyane.Eli what I want to tell you with respect one day hopfully victory will be ours.But Eli put some of it under your knoweledge.Have a good time.
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November 9th, 2007 at 7:00 PM
It is a difficult dilema. either way is slavery. We can’t support Weyane to strengthen itself again to rule us more years. We can’t either support Shabia since it was Shabia who put Weyane on us and it would be the same slavery again.
It would have been a victory for Ethiopian people If the Ethiopian opposition was organized as ONLF or OLF. The big players are now EPLF and TPLF. The ethiopian people won’t benefit from EPLF’s victory against Woyane. OLF and ONLF would benefit much since they want to succeed.
My question is why are our lazy politicians sit and talk about democracy, peacefull struggle blah blah which didn’t change nothing. It would have been a best opportunity for them now to position themselves for a negotiation deal if they went the way ONLF and OLF went.
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November 9th, 2007 at 7:19 PM
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Elias,
I read your analysis and the feedback you got from others. I see some problems both in your analysis as well as others.
The basic problem starts from our points of view. Are we basing our opinion based on our wishes or are we looking at it based on the reality out there that exists now.
So the first question is what is the reality of the balance of forces on the ground? Can the Eritreans have the capacity both in terms of financial and economic resources to prolong the war? This is the easy question.
Next comes the issue of air power. Are they in a better position today than during the last war to effectively combat an air offensive coming from the Weyane army? Is there any one for the Eritreans to back them up by providing intelligence as well as military personnel to fight the air war? The Weyanes have the US to provide them with this capability. In fact, American pilots may take part in this war to take out the air defences of Eritrea as well as key military installations by using their modern sofisticated war planes. This will softened up the Eritrean Army and pave the way for the Weyane ground military forces to overrun Eritrea and possibly set up a puppet government immediately. This will be true if the US is involved on the side of Eritrea using air power. This will change the whole geo-political situation in the region for a long time to come.
If the US is out of this war equation, Eritrean have a chance to resist and even beat the Weyanes provided they have a better and well-trained as well as enough war planes to conduct the war.
I very much suspect the US may take part in the air war to topple Issayias and if there is a war, the odds seems to be in favor of the Weyanes unfortunately.
The conclusion is that the best thing for Eritrea is not to start the war and even resist provocation by the Weyanes. Unless the Eritreans have satisfied the preconditions to win the war which I mentioned earlier, their best bet is to get out of the demilitarized zone and not give the US and the Weyanes to start a war. I am not saying this because I am worried for them. As far as I am concerned, I don’t give a damn for Aferworki if the Weyanes slash his throat. But if the Eritreans loose, it will affect the struggle against the Weyane fascists in Ethiopia miserably and with very sad consequences.
My advice for Eritreans is not to start the war. The odds are against them. They should engage the Weyanes in a protracted war by weakening them by supporting different oppostion movements and conducting a proxy war. This will splinter their conventional capability and will also limit their use of air power and American air support. This will work in favor of the oppostion movements and the struggle at home which is my main concern. And this should be the concern of Elias and all other democratic forces fighting the Weyanes tooth and nail.
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November 9th, 2007 at 7:43 PM
TO me OLF, Woyanne and Shabia are the same and I want see them kill each other, but my heart goes out to all the true ethiopians who are fighting in this coming war.
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November 9th, 2007 at 7:49 PM
Elias:
It is very articulate analysis. The Weyanes are evil people. They do not care for united Ethiopia; their initial dream was to form “Great Tigray. ” why we are trying to hide the truth? They changed the plan of their dream after Shabia told them that it was wrong to separate Tigray from Ethiopia. Still, they are building Tgray not Ethiopia. On the other hand why we believe the Weyane propaganda, the shabias did not say nobody would use their ports. In fact they said that if the border issue solved, they would seat to solve other issue for the coexistence of both neighbor nations. Weyane they fought for a piece of land by sacrificing other ethnic groups rather than Tigreans. So are we supporting for the same reason? We need to learn from our previous experience and reed off this evil people who dreamed to divide Ethiopia. Lets try to leave in peace with our neighbors.
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November 9th, 2007 at 7:57 PM
Adamu #44 has a great point. In fact, it supports Abiy’s point of view. Since Kinijit is involved in a peaceful struggle, I doubt if it is going to have any meaningful role if the war is concluded with the defeat of the Weyanes. That is why Abiy took the position he did at the end of his comment. The best and the is to avoid a Weyane-Shabiya war until Kinijit or other Ethiopian National patirotic army is ready to handle the consequences of the war either way no matter who wins.
I am afraid both defeat and victory of the Weyanes is not a good thing for the oppostion. NO WAR is the best thing for the opposition.
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November 9th, 2007 at 8:06 PM
Good analysis friend, appericiated
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November 9th, 2007 at 8:08 PM
Once again, I say the analysis is way out of touch. Who is dying here? Ethiopians! Who is better for Ethiopian unity and stability? Shabia? OLF? The dislike of weyane should not make us completely blind to the reality on the ground.
I find the analysis to be off target and reckless. The defeat of Weyane by any power will create a crack that can not be patched up by any local or foreign Power. Think of peaceful resolution. We have had many years of shooting at each other with out abating. Think… shabia is the one who trained armed weyane and get us where we are. At least weyane calls them selves Ethiopian. I am ashamed of you. You are the same person who was telling the Diaspora not to fly Ethiopian Airline. What is wrong with you man? Wake up. Let us be honest neither Shabia nor Weyane is good for ethiopia. But if I have to choose between the two evils, I will take my chance with Weyane.
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November 9th, 2007 at 8:19 PM
Elias, I do not agree with your explanation or analysis because OLF, ONLF, UIC, Shabia and other armed struggle oppositions want to distruct as a hole Ethiopia. I agree with your explanation only to remove the Woyane regime from Ethiopians shoulder once for all with organized struggle. Shabia do not want Ethiopia stand as strong country in the East of Africa. I do not like war as a whole as solution for Ethiopia. The above mentioned armed struggle opposition groups want to dissintigrate Ethiopia in Millions small village. I know the Woyane regime has been distructing Ethiopia since 1991 but if wish the defeat of Woyane against Shabia means you would not get the orginal Ethiopia for ever.
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November 9th, 2007 at 8:31 PM
I completely agree with you regarding Woyane and the TPLF thugs being the mortal enemy of Ethiopia and Ethiopians. As you said, TPLF and its thugs have shown us beyond any shadow of a doubt of their utmost hatred, enmity, and distractive nature. Recent interviews of Mellesse and Sebhat are few more tangible evidences. However, I don’t agree with you regarding supporting EPLF/Shabia at all. No!!!! We Ethiopians should never forget that:-
1. Issayas was the one who created, nurtured, and supported Mellesse/TPLF all the way to Arat Kilo.
2. Issayas was the one who crafted, developed, and supported ethnic movements in Ethiopia (starting from TPLF). We don’t forget what Issayas did to Ethiopian patriots in EPPF.
3. Issayas’ statement of “100 years of home work for Ethiopians to fight amongst themselves”.
4. Issayas and Mellesse who fought and still fighting Ethiopia and the Ethiopian identify.
Supporting any one of them is not in the best interest of our country. Who ever wins Ethiopia will loss and might be divided into five weak nations. The only difference between the two being if Mellesse wins he will set up his “greater Tigray”. There is no guarantee for Ethiopia to exist as a nation. Mellesse (TPLF) and Issays (EPLF) are the two sides of the same coin. They are no good for Ethiopia and Ethiopians and we should NEVER, EVER support any one of them. I will go for option 3. Let these two monsters slug it off. Ethiopians should not be party to this.
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November 9th, 2007 at 9:11 PM
Dear Elias:
In the first place I would like to register my strong opposition to this war. This war does not benefit Ethiopia. There is no reason why our young brothers and sisters would sacrifice their life for crazy wars.
Reading your comment on the situation in Northern Ethiopia I have decided to express my disagreement to what you wrote.
You presented two scenarios. The first scenario is the scenario where teh victory would go to the EPRDF. That may surely embolden the regime and extend their grip of power in Ethiopia. The status quo where democratic rights are violated and the law is not ruling will continue. No want want an embolden dictatorial regime.
The second scenario is the victory of Shabia. (by victory of Shabia I meant the failure of the EPRDF to win the war and detain ato Issayas in less than a month). This scenario will surely lead to the disentegration of Ethiopia as we know it. With the EPRDF dominated security forces defeated, I cannot see who will maintain law and order in the country ? War lordism will be certainly established. ONLF will rule Ogaden, OLF will dominate western Wellega, remnants of TPLF will stay in Tigray ..imagine the chaos.
The victory of EPRDF may not be a good thing. However the victory of Shabia will be the worst that can happen to Ethiopia. Remember EPRDF is where it is now because of Shabia. Shabia has been the greast distabilizor of Ethiopian and the regime). Besides, Shabia is currently brutally oppressing our Ethiopians brothers(i.e Eritreans).
Then what shall we do ? All Ethiopians must understand that whoever the victorious of the war may be the outcomes are bad for Ethiopia. There are no good options exceopt one. The option of struggling to avert the war. Therefore we must fight not to see another war. A war with Eritrea does not benefit at all Ethiopia.It does not benefit the EPRDF, Shabia, Ethiopians north and south of Mereb.
This war wouod be a war between brothers. let us sayn NO to the war. let us say no to any war.
Girma Kassa
muziky68@yahoo.com
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November 9th, 2007 at 9:52 PM
I understand how much you hate woyanie, we all do. but what is going to be happen if shabia win the war. i don’t think they will clean the road for democracy. i think they will make our life more miserable. because ,i don’t think they love Ethiopia at begin with. anyway everything is for good reason. we all don’t know how God works with Ethiopians, he is always next to us somehow and someway.
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November 9th, 2007 at 10:06 PM
I would not add a thing to what you wrote. Well written!!!.
You got it right what woyane is trying to do is to run away from its internal problems by making the eritreans the enemies again. This time the Ethiopian people will not be played again. Already, some woyane soliders are deserting, even Tigrayans. If You want this bloodthirsty woyanes to rule Ethiopia forever, then support them.
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November 9th, 2007 at 10:18 PM
I have read so many responses from pro-bloody woyanes as well as true citizens of Ethiopia.
All hardwares and techinologies can not would not enslave free people who rise up against tyrants.
As far as Eritrean people, no question they won’t march to Badime with roses to welcome bloody woyanes- if you believe this for a second, wake up Ethiopians Eritreans would unleash the mothers of all hell on invaders. This would bring as to view littered body parts all over badime by all major news out lets for some times.
Suppose the woyanes enter Asmara in three days after losing another 100 thousands little boys, still litters of boobies and traps which hack them throughout.
Eritrea has many competent pilots who could bomb any village in around mekelle, each day for 6 months. Their flights can be from any direction and swift, trust me.
The Eppf and the rest Ethiopians who voluntarily joined Eritrea would be armed and sent from 8 directions which woyane by this time is circling 360 degrees like chicken without its head.
Many responders with pessimism think freedom is free and would want to sit and wait untill Eritrea hands them! That is our stupidity reflective. Ethiopians must revolt all over
coinciding with the war. Group and regroup to take wise revolution to take power back by any means possible.
As the saying goes untill broken no need of fixing, when start cracking take hammer, and crack down the walls of tyrany.
If solamali women and children can do it what happen to brave sons of Ethiopia? Removing tyrants out of their holes is noble measure all true sons of Ethiopia need to partake at all levels.
Peaceful means you believe in would repeat exactly what Musharef is doing to his opposition.
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November 9th, 2007 at 10:40 PM
You know I really admire your writting today. The number one enemy is woyane. Woyane wants to dismantle Ethiopia and create a “Greater Tigray”, Please my fellow Ethiopians do not be fooled. Woyanes are evil and if we all Ethiopians unite, they will fall. The Eritreans never said we can not use their ports, but Woyane will use all the excuses it can create to make war, because from now on, they have to have a reason to stay in power either by creating war with neighboors or ONLF, OLF,…Otherwise, they will fall. Their end is not far. You now from now on they will not hold elections, if they do this time they will lose again in a landslide. So please, my people let us not be fooled again.
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November 9th, 2007 at 10:42 PM
Elias,
This is going to be a war against evil forces who murdered innocent civilians from Addis all the way to Mogadishu! It will be a war against forces who terrorize, blackmail, torture, kill innocent children and women! a war against forces of lie, greed and betrayal! a war against evils who have no accountability for 100,000 the death of their fellow country men! a war against evils who lost their soul for $$.
Well, the good news is that evil forces always lose and the truth will prevail!
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November 9th, 2007 at 11:56 PM
Elias,
With all due respect I beg to differ on this issue!
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November 10th, 2007 at 12:12 AM
[...] 10, 2007Woyanne-Shabia conflict: The defeat of Woyanne means victory for Ethiopia Woyanne is currently engaged in a shooting war on multiple fronts. The worst fighting is going on in… Filed under Blog by [...]
November 10th, 2007 at 12:17 AM
እሊያስ በዚህ ጉዳይ በምንም አይነት አልስማማም ምክንያቱም ምንም እንኩዋን መለስን እንዲወድም ብንፈልግም ቅሉ እሳያስም ኮሎኒያሊስቶች ያልቻሉትን ክፍተት ፈልጎ የመለስ ሳያንስ እንደገና ኢትዮጵያውያን እንዲገዙ አልመኝም :: መሆን ያለበት ኢትዮጵያውያን ከመቸውም በላይ ተባብረን ሁለቱንም የተረገሙ ሰዎች ማስወገድ ነው:: መዋጋቱ የሁለቱንም ደሃ ህዝብ ይፈጃል እንጂ ትርፍ አያስኝም ስለዚህ መበርታት ያለብን በመለስ እና በኢሳያስን ላይ ብቻ መሆን አለበት ህዝቡ አይለቅ::
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November 10th, 2007 at 12:26 AM
Elias, I strongly disagree with you on this subject. I say that the war with Eritrea should not take place at all. The ONLF problem should be resolved through negotation. No conflict should take place with any of the other groups you mentioned. If Woyane is defeated in these conflicts it will make sure that Ethiopia is in chaos before woyane leaves the scene(Ene kemotku serdo Ayebekel). I believe the complex problem of Ethiopia will be resolved when we have a government that comes to power in a peaceful way. We need leaders who are chosen by the people. Leaders who got there with gun will alwas try to solve their problem with gun. But leaders who are elected through peaceful manner will solve their problems in a peaceful and cevilized manner.
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November 10th, 2007 at 1:51 AM
Woyane will not reclaim Ethiopia’s access to the sea by capturing Assab. Meles has told us this over and over again. So what is the point of supporting his child killer army? I want to see “Agazi” slaughterd in the palace!
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November 10th, 2007 at 2:19 AM
Dear ER
Of course, it is very unfortunate that Ethiopia is in the hands of treasonous and betrayal Woyane, and confronting and engaged in unnecessary war. But do you (ER) think Eritrea and Somalia needs to see a peaceful, democratic and developed Ethiopia. I don’t think Shabia, SOMALIA or ONLF are liberators of Ethiopian people, rather they need a fallen Ethiopia. We must fight woyane to get our freedom by ourselves not by Shabian or Somalian. We can oppose the war, but it is not good idea to have a wish that Shabia and Somalia to win Ethiopian military, in other words we don’t want Ethiopia to be in the hands of Eritrea/ Somalia.
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November 10th, 2007 at 3:25 AM
if woyane goes war with eritrea or not its time is up. tplf commited massacre so awfully that pple who know about it will not forget.for the victims and the handfull of survivors it is 17 years of massacre with out mercy in all parts of ethiopia{ogaden,amhara.oromia,afar,sidamo}.
it is delibrate,planned and overseen internatinally.but the perpetrators have gone unpanished{zenawi}.
to EGNA my brother do u think TPLF cares about peace and dialogue after 17 years some of my fellow ethiopians dreaming plz wake up 2 the reality.
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November 10th, 2007 at 4:11 AM
no matter what,i rather suport the evil i know than the evil i don’t know.i believe internal matters will be resolved from within in due time,but supporting anti ethiopian elements like shabia, onlf and olf will be the greatest blunder ethiopians can commit.woyane will not stay in power forever.governments will come and go,but ethiopianism will live forever.
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November 10th, 2007 at 4:37 AM
My fellow Ethiopians, first and for most I would like to commend my brother Elias for saying the necked truth this timely issue. I absolutely agree with Elias analysis. Weyane can not fool us time and time again. They have demonestrated from the day they came to power until this day that they are not Ethiopians and they do’t give a hoot about Ethiopia and its children. There is no vivid example than murdering inocent women and children and imprisoning our elected officials. Never in our three thousand history, that any ruler devided our country us the weyane did. There is no tribe or ethinic group be may the OLF or the ONLF or others that wants Ethiopia to disintigrate. Even the Eritreans have no interest Ethiopia to be devided. The only people that wants Ethiopia to be devided are the woyane. Unless they stay in power and loot its wealth and use abuse and misuse our people. Eventhough I completly agree with the analysis of Elias, I still do not believe they will open war with shabiya. My reason is that, they know that our people is not going to be foolled this time again and even the Tigray people is not with them. Ever since they came they helped no body except themselves and thier handfull cadres. There fore eventhough thier days are numbered another war front will make thier stay in power less numbered. We the children of Ethiopia the God fearing people can and will be living peacefully side by side with the Sumalis, Eritreans, Sudanis and the Jubutis and for that matter ony one who does not wish us any ill. Having said that every thing is possible even with shabia. Therefore the enemy is weyane and weyane have to go by any means necessary.
Weyane days are numbered and Ethiopia will be victorios us always.
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November 10th, 2007 at 4:43 AM
I have almost read 95% of the comments. My observation is that almost all of the participants here seem to agree on one thing: Ethiopia without Weyane would be an ideal scenario for democracy. Nevertheless, their take on how to achieve that goal is so diverse. Some advance a peaceful struggle, others choose a violent way through liberation fronts, and other extreme groups contemplate the idea of Eri-Ethiopia war with mixed emotions – wanting the demise of Weyane while dreading a possible victory for Shabiya. The latter group is the most dishonest people. Deep down they know it is only Shabiya which has the means to uproot Weyane, but they never want to entertain or relish that idea due to their extreme hatred and feeling towards Eritrea. There may be other group who are totally against Elias’s idea – these are Weyane supporters.
My take:
WHY WAR? Why do we sentence thousands of poor people to death? Why don’t we bury our pride? Be for a minute in the position of parents whose sons are in the war fronts. How would you feel mentally and emotionally with the thought that your son is about to go for war and possibly never come back again? Imagine you are the very soldier who is digging and strengthening his trench to make himsefl ready for an imminent war. What would you say to all those people who have given their comments above?
Dear All,
PLEASE PLEASE HAVE MERCY FOR THESE POOR SOULS!
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November 10th, 2007 at 7:24 AM
no help to woyane who r egoist …we helped them enough for the sake of unity .But at the end of the day we understand that a snake is always a snake,thats why they forgot everything and they put us in jails..in ziway and other places.They shade bloood for nothing of the true ethiopians who manifested for their rights .So they couldnt fool us again …so live them alone to wash their hands …blood .BEDEHNA GIZYE BILA TETA YALALKEW WETAT ..YASEKAYEKEW WETAT GER TEWERALECHNA ZIMET TILEWALEH ENDYE…..ANIRESAWM
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November 10th, 2007 at 7:24 AM
Thank you Elias for speaking the truth and having the right vision.
If the minority tplf war mongering dictator wins the war against Eritrea and the other opposition forces the slavery of Ethiopians will only become permanent. We will be forced to swallow the bitter pills of minority dictator’s dynasty and will always be ruled by gun alone. We will be permanently dispersed just like the former Armenians and live the hopeless refugee lives leaving vibrant and great Ethiopia behind and sinking to the bottom of the drain. Believe me folks it will not be the Eritreans who will suffer from the defeat because international law and other international rules will always protect even a defeated nation but no body on earth will come to protect the wretched Ethiopians from the genocidal tplf dictatorship.
Besides, having chaotic Somalia and chaotic Eritrea submerging in to warfare and violence with the Wayane war loving suicidal gang active intervention will just bring home to Ethiopia the tragedies of Iraq and Afghanistan where we may not even have any viable country called Ethiopia anymore let alone ” an arena for peaceful struggle.”
We need to be wise, cool and rationally stop the Wayane virus from distroying Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea and the entire horn seemingly for greater Tigrai,but may instead commite suicide on itself and on Ethiopia too.
Let us not listen to payed Wayane cadres and propaganda workers advocating directly and indirectly for the establishments of Greater East African Tigrian emppire.
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November 10th, 2007 at 8:32 AM
weyane is the enemy of all eritrean and ethiopians so wehave to unite agianst dictater meles
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November 10th, 2007 at 8:32 AM
You the hate monger,
I wonder how stupid and lazy editor you are and believe me you will never see your dreams happen!
Only Tigrians are enough for shabia and don’t forget all the heroic missions of TPLF against Amhara regim before 16 years.
Long live Meles and Weyane!
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November 10th, 2007 at 9:08 AM
If the war starts between Eritrea and Woyanne we Ethiopians should not support our killers the Woyannes.The worst cancer for Ethiopia is TPLF and its members not Eritreans.Who can forget that this Woyanne army had killed hundreds and imprisoned about 100000 Ethiopians after TPLF lost the 2005 election.Let only woyanne and its followers fight this war, it is non of other Ethiopians’ business.This war can break the back bone of TPLF for good.
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November 10th, 2007 at 12:04 PM
Elias,
well said!! But we need to get rid of both dictators. We should get rid of Weyane per Bullet and rid of Eritrean dictators per Ballot. The current CANCER of the Horn is Weyane, which must be removed radically by coordinated struggle of all nations in the Horn (Oromians, Agew-amharas, Afar-sahos, Somalis, Eritreans, Sidamas and others). In the coming war we all need to support Eritrean Army to crush the CANCER of the region.
After getting rid of the CANCER, we all turn to support Eritrean people to get rid of its dictatorial system. Isayas must open the door for democracy which he now hindered because of the No-war-no-peace situation with the CANCER of the region. Surely he will do it for he will be free from fear of attack from the CANCER in case of Eritrean destabilization in the election and democratization process.
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November 10th, 2007 at 12:13 PM
Elias , my apperciation for good observation and political analysis from all direcions and i respect it, but we, ethiopians are capable of toppling weyanes from our country and get our freedom with out any other assistance if we are struggling coordinatelly by creating a united front. Shabia has never been thinking good thing for ethiopia. what is very intersting for me, issayas’s mother and father were from tegeray both, where as eritreans like sebhatu ,berket simon and even melese are from eritrea. now begeza daboye lebelebun atahute essayas became the leader the poorest nation on earth ,where as eritreans became the richest nation on earth.God bless ethiopia and down with weyanes . amen
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November 10th, 2007 at 12:48 PM
The horn of Africa is kind of a mess…Eritrea’s economy is messed up and the people are suffering. Ethiopian government(Woyanne) has very little support and are on all fronts. Somalia is in anarchy and Ethiopia is on the brink of losing. And who knows about Djibouti. Maybe they are doing well who knows…
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November 10th, 2007 at 12:57 PM
Mr. Elias, this is not a sport event. Defeat to any side means a lot of lives lost. If defeat means loss of lives I do not wish defeat to any of the parties involved. I honestly do not wish death for any Ethiopian, Eritrean or Somali. Life is so sacred. The death of one soldier has a larger consequence than we are thinking. Think of the children, parents and wives of a fallen soldier on any side. Don’t you think that they deserve to enjoy life with their loved ones, like the rest of us. Don’t you think these soldiers have dreams and aspirations. Isn’t it sad that these dreams are cut short because of Meles and Afeworki. I am sure our judgment would be different if one of our loved ones was among them. May God Help us.
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November 10th, 2007 at 1:34 PM
From Eritrean point of view it is nice to see many Ethiopians finding out the root cause of their problems that’s woyane. As to the question of who to support incase war starts; you just need to support your case and no one else.
A struggle without legitimate case is a worthless one because it can’t stand bad weather. So if Ethiopians think they have a legitimate struggle, they should see beyond the enemies military and propaganda force and trust their people and their case. Eritrea and its existence is a true example of that experience I must add.
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November 10th, 2007 at 1:57 PM
I don’t have any problem agreeing with Elias’s excellent analysis.
As I have said it on several occasions, Meles the evil will never step down from power by peaceful solution, never and ever.
Meles, Berket, Sehat-Nega have said it several times, they want to destroy Ethiopia and its culture, annihilate specially the Amhars and rule Ethiopia for a thousand years. This is their wishes. So, why not agreeing with Elias’s one of the true sons of Ethiopia analysis?
NO. 45 ABIYS’S excellent observation on the ground in case of war between the woyanne forces and our Eritrea’s brothers and sisters is something we should take it seriously.
Woyanne is on the list of the US state department to get free second hand equipment or to by it with highly discounted prices. This means they can sustain the war even if only woyanne fighters engaged on the front line.
You and me know it, when it comes down to war there is no difference between Ras Alula and Atse Thewodros, you know what I mean? So, with the help of America they can sustain the potential war indefinitely until the heated Issayas steps down from power.
What I am afraid is Eritrean economy will never stand another war with woyanne and the US. And the Arab nation will be told not to help the terrorist Issayas. If you like it or not, the US must have given its approval to woyanne to get rid of Issayas, as they did in Somalia. If not Meles the dog will never go to war with his own decision.
However, it is always difficult to predict the outcome of a war.
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November 10th, 2007 at 2:31 PM
Elias:
There are two fallacies in your Editorial. If the security and armed forces of the EPDRF/Woyane government disintegrate following a defeat by Eritrea, there is no guarantee the void will be filled by any group that belives in a united Ethiopia. Different regions will be taken over by regional “liberation fronts” or warlords just the way Somalia has been. The ONLF and OLF are in the best position to fulfil their dreams.
The second fallacy is in your shallow and lunatic analysis is that the Eritrean regime wants a united Ethiopia. No, it does not. The pattern of its involvement in the last two decades has been asssting separatist movements or cropping thm up where they do not exist.
It has laid the ground work to weaken Ethiopia once and for all. ONLF, OLF, GLF, BLF, EEPF, ICU and many others are on the ready to move in and create havoc if the central government is weak in Ethiopia. Unarmed groups such as CUD will not be a position to counter such elements.
Your editorial has proved something to me. You are so filled with hate, you will burn the house you are in as long as it also takes with you the group you hate.
I will see if you will post this……..
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November 10th, 2007 at 3:04 PM
Hi Elias, I support your analysis. We should support any force who weaken the Woyanes. If we support the Woyanes and they win, you what happens next. They will put a puppet government in Eritrea and use Eritrean troops (together with the Agazi) to enslave Ethiopians for another 20 years.
Watch out brothers.
[Reply]
November 10th, 2007 at 3:24 PM
Elias,
I generally agree with everything you say but this topic. I really believe you have not thought out this scenario. Yes we all want Woyane out of power. We hate Woyane because of its failure to protect our sovereignty to our liking and expectation. Your formula only guarantees our biggest fears. That is that our nation fall into the hands of Shabia, OLF and ONLF. That would be the end of Ethiopia for sure.
thanks
[Reply]
November 10th, 2007 at 4:49 PM
Elias, your analysis seems to me wrong this time. the Esaias regime would not succed as guriella fighters or insurgents like what is going on in Iraq and somalia. this is because
1. The eritrean people are tired of isayas\shaebia
2. suicide attack is not known in earitrean people or army
3. Shaebia does’t have that strong financial and economic strength for long lasting cournter attack
4. strong US intellengece and ammunation support is at woyannes hand.
5 since eritrean and ethiopian people are almost the same in identity, it would be a great help for woyane for intellegence work if shabia turns to be guriella
Although I don’t support woyane, I am sure Woyane will win this war and as the implication of this is clear woyane will get very strong in side ethiopia and its repressive rule will continue along with its pseudo/show-democracy until a major historical phenomenon will happen at interantional or national level and ends woyanes era.
[Reply]
November 10th, 2007 at 5:26 PM
I like this article, this is what I have been saying for these years. Who knows this could be a conspiracy to create chaos which last for very long time so before the dust settled Meles and his cohorts would escape. Some Ethiopians who have not been victims think after Meles unity would be easily posible. The damage had been done while either some of us were part of it or supported in anyway. Look what had happen in Gambella in December 2003when Ethiopian citizens were killed in the day light. Where were those who are today talking about unity but not about what could have been done to protect the Anuaks? The next united Ethiopia could only happen if we start open talking about the new direction for Ethiopia. I do see the posibility of forming the united Ethiopia under a new name or after each region has gone in its own way we could sit down as equal partners and write the terms of unity otherwise forget about the unity. By the way let me ask evry one this question who would benefit the next unity? If unity killed Gambellians, Oromos, Sidamas, Ogadenians, Afars and Beneshaguls under Derg and TPLF what do you think another unity would have for these people? We better acept the fact “all empires” end is the same, desentegration. It was the matter of breaking the zero before Eritera goes and now after counting one who could stop the counting? There would be two, three, four, five, six and seven and it is only then the states I mentioned would be in peace. The idea of not supporting Eritera becuse the liberation fronts would benefit is a slavery mentality. If we are serious about defeating the TPLF it is time to do it.The liberation fronts have political goals but Ethiopians who wanted unity by any cost don’t want to hear that, but untill they acknowledge that there is a problem and wanted to discuss it openly, they will be sorry.
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November 10th, 2007 at 6:15 PM
Dear Editor,
Supporting Essayas against Meles means nothing more that opting for even worse psychopath and dictator. Do you honestly think that the OLFs and the ONLS are healthy political forces? I don’t think so. Who ever run to the mountain with arms lucks persuasive power and short of the political gut for peaceful movement.
[Reply]
November 10th, 2007 at 7:05 PM
The Third Option
Oppose the war, do not help Eritreans let the Eritreans defend themselves, let Oromo and Amara refuse to join the ‘Ethiopian Army’ which is recruited and paid by foreigners who do not have the interest of the Ethiopian or Eritrean peoples. Because many Ethiopians do not know their true history they are always mislead by any dictator to drag them from one war in Somalia to anothe war in Eritrea and may be tomorrow with Kenya, Sudan and Djibuti. Eritreans and Somalis are the true blood brothers and sisters of Ethiopians, they have fought together for true independence against foreign enemies and their local recruits who put their country and people for sale. Isayas is the present Tewodros of our region and time. Let us not repeat the same mistake that King Yohannis and King Teklehaimanot did aginst Emperor Tewodros of Ethiopia at Mekdela. Supporting a war to remove President Isayas will not be in the interest of Eritrean or Ethiopian people, no matter how the enemieys of the people sugarcoated their action. Let us learn from our history and not repeat them. For those who want to see a sea port for Ethiopia, they had always a free port as long as Eritrean were in charge of their country, and not when Turkish, Italians and British ocupay Eritrea. And for those who are woried about Ethiopian Unity, Eritrean have always supported Ethiopian Unity and for that they have a historical fact to prove it. Long live the true fraternity of the Ethiopian and Eritrean People and down with those that creat enemity among the various nationalities of the region.
[Reply]
November 10th, 2007 at 7:51 PM
It really is a good analyze, because of the simple reason that the Ethiopian people have tried their best to bring T.P.L.F. to its sense and think for the better of the entire country and introduce productive political system to no avail. The only supper power has no desire to respect human rights or democracy in other parts of the world instead they are after weak, brutal and corrupted leaders whom they can use for the superpower’s purposes. The only chance they will notice us is when they realize that we are ready to fight for our right.
As to the question who to support incase the war starts. Well, with or without our support the war will still commence and to support a brutal dictator that slaughtered youngsters in a broad daylight is not an option at all. We should support all the armed struggles if our agony is to be gone. As to the unity of the country, no region can get independence without the full acceptance of an Ethiopian government. So the chance that they will get independence is none existent.
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November 10th, 2007 at 8:02 PM
Are you guys insane to promote the defeat of Ethiopia by Eritrea? are you so hungry for power that you need to go to any extent to even think of what you wrote? Are you so naive to think that Eritrea will negotiate its ports to you. How dare you sit in the diaspora and even think of deciding the fates of us Ethiopians who live in Ethiopia. Who are you? what did you do to alleviate Ethiopia’s poverty? apart from sowing hate?what kind of employement opportunities did you create for Ethiopians in Ethiopia recently? Are you even aware of the realities in Ethiopia? How can there be a united Ethiopia if OLF, ONLF etc get what they want? You are not democratic, you alienate people who support other ideas, what makes you think you and those you support will not be dictators. Dictatorship starts when you alienate people that have different ideas. You are Dicatators! You are very very ethinic biased and you certainly lack maturity.I will be very surprised if you post this opinion. Please surprise me.
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November 10th, 2007 at 8:07 PM
I support Almaz.
“Almaz Kifle says:
Elias:
There are two fallacies in your Editorial. If the security and armed forces of the EPDRF/Woyane government disintegrate following a defeat by Eritrea, there is no guarantee the void will be filled by any group that belives in a united Ethiopia. Different regions will be taken over by regional “liberation fronts” or warlords just the way Somalia has been. The ONLF and OLF are in the best position to fulfil their dreams.
The second fallacy is in your shallow and lunatic analysis is that the Eritrean regime wants a united Ethiopia. No, it does not. The pattern of its involvement in the last two decades has been asssting separatist movements or cropping thm up where they do not exist.
It has laid the ground work to weaken Ethiopia once and for all. ONLF, OLF, GLF, BLF, EEPF, ICU and many others are on the ready to move in and create havoc if the central government is weak in Ethiopia. Unarmed groups such as CUD will not be a position to counter such elements.
Your editorial has proved something to me. You are so filled with hate, you will burn the house you are in as long as it also takes with you the group you hate.
[Reply]
November 10th, 2007 at 8:26 PM
Well you wish. Woyane is gonna win every fight and you are gonna be sad. Becuase there is a diffrence between fighting and talking. You guys are good at the latter.
[Reply]
November 10th, 2007 at 8:46 PM
Hi,elias I support your analysis. We should support any armed force who defeated woyanes,otherwise they will have two secret prison one in Asmara& Mogadishu
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November 10th, 2007 at 9:51 PM
I agree in all the points you list of things TPLF did, nothing you fabricated. I believe TPLF number one enemy of Ethiopia because of them Ethiopia lost so many things. However, under no circumstance I support the natural enemy of Ethiopia, Shabia. Are you crazy? If I have one bullet and someone ask me who I want to kill with that bullet I will kill Melese that I assure you. As I said above supporting Isayas in any way or means is not a right way wining TPLF. Isyase and the core Eritreans want the weak and divide Ethiopia. We should stand together all Ethiopian who believe united Ethiopia and fight Melese. We will win without Eritrean involvement. I don’t trust or have no affiliation with Eritrean when it comes to Ethiopian issue.
[Reply]
November 10th, 2007 at 10:47 PM
Human waves fall as war aims unfold
Written by David Hirst
SATURDAY, 10 NOVEMBER 2007 (FLASBACK)
Tuesday May 18, 1999 – Ethiopia’s Tigrayan-dominated regime wants a path to the sea – through neighbouring Eritrea
‘The essence of democracy is majority rule,’ said a former ambassador to Addis Ababa. ‘But here we have 4 million Tigrayans lording it over 18 million Amharans, and 20 million Oromos – always the most oppressed.’
Six weeks after the battle of Tsorona, the bloodiest yet of this desert ‘border’ war, Ethiopian soldiers still lie unburied on the baking plain, just yards from Eritrean trenches; an occasional breeze, otherwise welcome, brings only the stench of decomposition.
A fifth of Eritrean combatants are women. ‘I was born in Addis Ababa [the Ethiopian capital],’ said Agib Haile, 21. ‘Ethiopians are my friends. I love them so much. It was horrible.’
The horror, it seems, was less in what Eritreans themselves suffered – though she lost her closest friend – than in what they inflicted on the enemy.
The Ethiopian commanders’ strategy was simple. Deploying tens of thousands of barely trained recruits along a 3-mile front, they drove them forward, wave upon wave, with the sole mission of blowing themselves up on minefields until they had cleared a path to the Eritrean front line for better trained infantry, mechanised forces and armour.
In the third or fourth wave, about 5,000 peasants came with them, their mules and donkeys bearing food and ammunition for an Ethiopian breakthrough.
It didn’t work. The doomed men hardly raised their weapons, but linked hands in a despairing communal solace in the face of certain death from four sources: mines, perfectly aimed artillery, the trenches and their own officers in the rear, who shot them if they turned and ran.
This was the horror of which Ms Haile and her companions spoke, of mowing down the oncoming horde till their Kalashnikovs became too hot to hold, their fingers raw from unclipping grenades.
Hidden agenda emerges
It is not really a ‘border’ war at all. Eritreans have long suspected a broader ‘hidden agenda’. The evidence for at least a steadily unfolding incremental agenda grows increasingly plausible. The chief impulse behind it is Tigrayan ethno-regional nationalism: the attempt of a small component of the multi-ethnic Ethiopian state to assert itself, at the expense not only of neighbouring Eritrea but all other nationalities inside it.
Eritreans and Tigrayans together brought down the Ethiopian Marxist-Leninist dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991. The Eritreans opted for their long-cherished goal of secession. The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) seized power in Addis Ababa.
But that decision to stay within the Ethiopian polity was at odds with the goal of Eritrean-style independence that the TPLF had long proclaimed. It never formally repudiated its 1976 ‘independence’ manifesto, under which Tigray was to have access to the sea. Although it was not spelled out, that access could only be via Eritrean territory.
The collapse of the Mengistu regime was so complete that, with Eritrean help, the Tigrayans could take over and dominate the Ethiopian state. They ended the ‘chauvinist’ supremacy of ethnic Amharans through whom the Emperor Haile Selassie and then Mengistu had ruled.
In theory they replaced it with ‘unity based on equality’. In practice their multi-party system, constructed on rigidly ethnic lines, was but a thin democratic facade for a Tigrayan supremacy that was even more extreme than that of the Amharans.
‘The essence of democracy is majority rule,’ said a former ambassador to Addis Ababa. ‘But here we have 4 million Tigrayans lording it over 18 million Amharans, and 20 million Oromos – always the most oppressed.’
Tigrayans dominated the administration, security services, police and army. Bitter memories of Amharan ‘chauvinism’ seemed to pervade and envenom their new sense of mastery.
The Ethiopian state in their hands, they persisted, if surreptitiously, with a Tigrayan agenda. The right of secession was enshrined in the constitution while they diverted state resources to their own people and region, and enlarged Tigray province at the expense of others.
In 1997, when the border troubles with Eritrea began, this marked a new threshold in the unfolding agenda. The TPLF published a new ‘political map’ of Tigray that incorporated some of the territories – Eritrean according to sacrosanct colonial boundaries – over which the two states are now at war.
Though they were allies during their common ‘liberation’ struggle, the Tigrayans harbour a traditional animosity towards the Eritreans which came out with crude vehemence in semi-official rhetoric. They accused the Eritreans of looking down on them – which many do.
All-out war looming, Tigrayans mobilised the Ethiopian state on their behalf. The army, overwhelmingly Tigrayan, was vastly enlarged, to some 250,000 men, with the recruitment of other nationalities.
Mengistu’s Amharan generals were released from prison, and Amharan officers re-enlisted. But Tigrayans still furnish 80% of officers; other than as ‘advisers’, there are few Amharans above the rank of captain.
Politically, they adopted the full pan-Ethiopianist discourse, in a so far largely successful attempt to win over the Amharans – many of whom were never reconciled to the loss of Eritrea – as their new allies of convenience.
By the time the war resumed in February, on a larger scale, Tigrayans had begun to speak openly of bringing down the regime of President Isaias Afewerki and replacing it with a ‘transitional government’ drawn from a small dissident group defeated by the president’s followers early in the liberation struggle.
Here, at Tsorona, it was no longer a question of border claims. Tsorona was the natural pathway to the Eritrean capital, Asmara. Prisoners of war say they were given instructions on how to get there. Obviously, with a puppet regime installed in Asmara, the TPLF could have imposed what is probably its maximalist territorial agenda – access to the sea at the port of Assab – while gratifying the pan-Ethiopian irredentism of the Amharans. It would have been a great triumph.
Threat of losing face
But Eritrea, with its superior military skills, has so far foiled such ambitions. Ethiopia’s prime minister, Meles Zenawi, and his TPLF face a dilemma: to retreat with grievous loss of face – within Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia – or pursue the war with the risk of greater setbacks. They still seem bent on the second course.
Nothing illustrates its unsustainability like the horrors of Tsorona. If the conduct of war is a measure of a government’s fitness and ability to rule, then Tsorona is a terrible indictment of the TPLF. It was Oromo peasants it selected as human minesweepers, and Tigrayan officers who shot them from the rear. Yet it showed hardly less contempt for its own people. Local Tigrayan villagers were pressed into that suicidal baggage train, and mainly Tigrayan soldiers died in the tanks that were entrusted to no other nationality.
Not surprisingly, resentments are reported to be deep and growing. It is far easier for Eritrea to exploit the simmering hatreds of oppressed Ethiopian nationalities than for Ethiopia to exploit a discredited, unrepresentative Eritrean opposition. With the supply of arms to Oromos and others, it has apparently begun doing so.
If, under international pressure, the TPLF compromises, it could, Eritreans believe, save itself and Tigrayan ascendancy over the Ethiopian state; if it does not, sooner or later Eritrea is likely once more to act as a catalyst of great upheavals within its giant neighbour.
David Hirst
Source: Guardian Unlimited
[Reply]
November 10th, 2007 at 10:49 PM
We have to be realistic instead of dreaming. You should know that wayane is stronge both poticically and military. Wayane has won a lot of war in Ethiopia history. Wayane is really smart not only talking in washington streets and bla bla bla in DC resturants. They fought and worked hard in Ethiopian. They have made to see big difference in the country.
God Bless Ethiopia
[Reply]
November 11th, 2007 at 1:56 AM
Responding to Micky,Almaz kifle,Mimi,
We have to get rid of woyane soon because of you and other Woyane supporters washing your hand with innocent Ethiopian’s blood. Trust me what goes up to will go down then we will burn all woyane and TPLF alive.
God destoy Woyane and TPLF!!!
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November 11th, 2007 at 2:15 AM
“War is a cowardly escape from the problems of peace.” Mann
“Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed.” Mao
“What difference does it make to the dead, the orphans and the homeless, whether the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism or the holy name of liberty or democracy?” M. Gandhi
“Today the real test of power is not capacity to make war but capacity to prevent it.” McCormick
“There never was a good war or a bad peace.” B. Franklin
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November 11th, 2007 at 2:19 AM
If the sons and daughters had the leadership in their hand, as we speak, no doubt in all Ethiopians mind, Isaiah Afework, the robber would not open his dirty mouth as much as he had been doing since long time.
Both Shabeya and Woyanne were hatched out of the rotten eggs of Ethiopia’s century old enemies, such as Egypt, Pakistan, and others. Therefore, both Shaebya and Woyanne are the twin enemies of Ethiopia.
If diligently and carefully dig into both Isayas Afework’s and Meles Naziawi’s minds, what we can extract is nothing but poison to destroy Ethiopia. We shall and must destroy them in order to secure our Ethiopia.
What is coming soon is, what is expected to be seen; and of course, both enemies shall definitely meet in the battlefield and butcher each other’s neck until no more bones left to support their serpent’s heads.
It was Shaebay’s agents who infected innocent people with ethnic virus and made our country battle against such criminal epidemics. The individuals who became the members of ONLF and OLF criminal organizations were those gullible individuals who were infected by the virus that Shaebya agents transmitted through a-mouth-to-mouth contact.
We Ethiopians must know that unless we destroy the sources of this epidemic, which is Shaebya, we can’t destroy Woyanne as quickly as possible.
Ethiopians, for the past 50+ years, Shaebya agents while they were sucking the blood Ethiopians and looting the resources of Ethiopia, they were clandestinely spreading all over Ethiopia and across the boarders into neighboring country infecting people with their deadly ethnic viruses. These the living viruses committed untold crime on Ethiopians just to extend their existence.
Who do you think brought HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia???? Think wise and hard, you would never be wrong in your conclusion.
Death to Shaebya!!!
Death to Woyanne!!!
[Reply]
November 11th, 2007 at 3:35 AM
We have two UnELcted Dictators Ethno_facist Cousins from both Sides of tekezea river -What we need is To get rid of both of this War lords and bakrupt their old political view and replace it with Democratic regimes which will resolve the problem in the region once and for all
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November 11th, 2007 at 4:15 AM
I propose the Ethiopian army to stop the unjust war which is being waged against our neighboring country Somalia and bring Meles and his gangs to justice and the Eritrean army reverse the direction of the barrel of the gun towards the brutal dictator Isayas instead of their fraternal Ethiopian people, and bring him to the court. Then and only then we could try to build peaceful governments and solve our problems to bring a lasting peace and prosperity to our countries. This way I think we could come to our sensitive issues like the Asab port quest, the fate of our Afar brothers and other minority tribes who live at the border regions and are suffering due to the tension there and solve it in a peaceful manner to bring mutual benefit to us all.
WEGESHAW
[Reply]
November 11th, 2007 at 4:22 AM
Lets Assume Shabya WINS –Mr Kifle Do you Expect Shabya will bring a lasting peaceand a United EThiopia ???////// Thx GOD its only 1% of probability that Shabya Wins Ethiopian defense forces -BUT I asure you Weyanea with the help of US and EU will Circle Eritreans capital Asmara with in less that 72 hrs.As for Esayas Aforki he will run to his former Supporters Arab Countries In that region and will Work against United and STRONg EThioipia for the rest of his life in Exile Until One day Died of heart attack for witnessing Ethiopians Succses and powerfulneess in the region
[Reply]
November 11th, 2007 at 4:22 AM
Mr. Elias you expound the current situation of Ethiopia as well as the fate of Woyanne including what the position of concerned Ethiopians should be at this important phase of termination of Woyanne period at the back of poor Ethiopians.
As to me Ethiopians has to aggravate the war.
Because this war is the end of TPLF.
[Reply]
November 11th, 2007 at 4:48 AM
All Ehiopian democratic forces should think about their tactics for two possible scenarios:
1. There will be no war (and no peace if the stalemate continues)
2. There will be war and Sha’ibiya will be chased out of Asmara. (I think it is a foregone conclusion that Sha’ibiya will lose if there is going to be a war. And, I don’t believe that they will fight a guerilla war after that because they have been spoiled by the comfort of palace life.)
The great danger is that EPRDF will be hardened by this and will try to close all the doors to a democratic transition. THIS CALLS FOR VISIONARY LEADERSHIP especially from CUDP.
[Reply]
November 11th, 2007 at 6:55 AM
Eritrea – the failed State.
If a referendum on Eritreas political fate like the 1993 Eritrean naational referendum would take place in Eritrea today, the result would be completely opposite to the 1993 result. Some 99% of Eritreans will choos to be united with the rest of Ethiopian people under just and democratic order. Eritrea is a standing proof that liberation alone is not a goal and an end for a national liberation movement. As a result Eritrean nationalism is now fading and to be realistic is losing meaning. The war between Woyane and Shabiya is not a border war as they both claim. It is to a large extent a situation created as the failed state that is dying is trying to get hope and revive at the expense of the Woyane, and that Woyane started to resist after carrying the burden for appreciably enough time. But all that it carried the burden, Woyane carried it at the expense of the Ethiopian people. To summarize Ethiopian cannot have any ground to support Shabiya over Woyane, and resume carrying the burden of Eritrean failed state. It is also not to the strategic benefit of the Ethiopian people. The defeat of an Ethiopian government by a foreign power means a lot in international politics. It means a lot on the development efforts, investment flow, technical and economic aids Ethiopia is gaining as a regional power and presumably reliable friend to the west etc etc. Ethiopia defeat may make Eritrea an automatic candidate to replace Ethiopia collaborations with the world’s economic and military powers. And it would not be the best alternative for Ethiopians to work on their internal affairs by supporting and all adverse foreign power, a situation that may lead their engineer affairs engineered by foreign power like the Shabiya regime, whos entire existence depends on sharing or if possible snatching opportunities and benefits from Ethiopia. That is it.
[Reply]
November 11th, 2007 at 1:31 PM
አቶ ኤልይስ:
ወያኔን መጥላትና ሻቢያን መውደድ ለየቅል ናቸው:: ሁኔታው ለመወስን የሚያስቸግር ፈታኝ እንደሆነ ይገባኛል:: ወያኔ ቢሳካለት የሚያደርገው ከሞላ ጎደል ግልጽ ይመስለኛል:: ኤርትራ ውስጥ አፍቃሬ ወያኔ የሆነ መንግሥት መመሥረትና የጦር አጋር በመፍጠር ተቃዋሚዎችን መፈናፈኛ ማሳጣት: ብሎም የማይደፈር ኃይል ሆኖ ከመቀጠል ያለፈ አጀንዳ ያለው አይመስለኝም:: አሰብን ያስመልሳል የሚሉን ከየትኛው ሚስጥራዊ የወያኔ ማኅደር እንዳገኙት አላውቅም::
ሻቢያ ቢያሸንፍስ? የሚለውን በጥሞና ብናጤነው ጠቃሚ ይመስለኛል:: ሻቢያ ወያኔን ካሸነፈ በኋላ ቅንጅት የምንናፍቀውን ዲሞክራቲክ መንግሥት እንዲመሠርት አገሪቱን አስረክቦት ወደ መረብ-ምላሽ ያፈገፍጋል ብሎ መተንበይ የምርቃና ግምገማ ይሆንብኛል::
1ኛ. በአሁኑ ወቅት በቅንጅት ዲሞክራትነት ላይ ያለው ክርክርና የውስጥ አንድነቱ ግምት ውስጥ ሊገባ አይገባውም ውይ?
2ኛ. ሻቢያ አፍቃሬ-ቅንጅት ነው ውይ? እግረመንገዱንስ አጠናፍሮት ሊያልፍ አይችልም ወይ?
2ኛ. ቅንጅት አገሪቱን ከሻቢያ ተረክቦ ሊመራና አንድነቷን ሊያረጋግጥ የሚችልበት አቅሙስ መዋቅሩስ አለው ወይ?
3ኛ. እነ ኦነግና የኦጋዴን ግንባር ከወያኔ ሽንፈት በኋላ ከቅንጅት ጋር የሚያሳዩት አስተማማኝ ትብብር በተጨባጭነት ይታወቃል ወይ?
4ኛ. ሻቢያን እንደግፍ የሚለው አስተያየት በ1979 የሱማሌ ጦርነት ጊዜ እንደተወሰደው የኢሕአፓ አቋም ቅንጅትን የፖለቲካ አጣብቂኝ ውስጥ አይከተውም ወይ?
ቢያንስ ጦርነቱ እስኪጀመር በሰከነ አእምሮ በማሰብ አገሪቱ ለበለጠ ኪሳራ እንዳትዳረግ መጨነቅ አለብን:: አማርጭ ያልተዘጋጀለት ደርግን መጥላት ለወያኔ እንደዳረገን ሁሉ ወያኔን ጭፍን ማውገዝ ደግሞ አገራችንን የግንብአሮች ፍሪዳ እንዳያደርጋት ያስፈራል:: ሃሞት ላለው ከሥእራዊቱ ተቀላቅሎ በቅድሚያ ሻቢያን ከዚያም ወያኔን በቅደም ተከተል መገዝገዙ የጊዜው ስትራተጂ መሆን አለበት እላለሁ:: ዲያስፖራ ሁለት የሚምልበባቸው እናትና አባት አገሮች ስላሉት በሰው ቁስል እንጨት ከሚሰድ ያበጠ ይፈንዳ አስተያየት ቢቆጠብ በጎ ነበር::
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November 11th, 2007 at 3:04 PM
Elias,
Thanks for surprising Lily #87 by posting her Weyane trash. You gave her an opportunity that she will never get from her fascist Weyane masters in her life time. That is why we keep saying the Weyanes are killer dictators while we are democrats with a lot of tolerance. We can even accomodate Weyane slaves like #87.
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November 11th, 2007 at 3:11 PM
Elias, You are really very smart person. I thought about the whole suitation again and again and came to the same conclusion as you have done.
What is the point of supporting the Woyanes ???
- Are we invaded by Shabia ????
- Are we invaded by the ICU ????
What is the point of rallying in support of the Woyanes then ????
- In 1998, we were screwed in to believing that we were invaded and we rallied, like bees whose hives have been touched, in support of these Woyane gangs. But now , we know it all. Cheat me once, shame on you; cheat me twice, shame on me (shame on us Ethiopians).
Now, shabia is not a treat to Ethiopia. There is no invasion from north. Now, Woyane is the one who is sparring for war, for sure it is not for the good of Ethiopia. Woyanes are doing the bids of External powers, whith Ethiopian blood, and they get in return more time to rule (enslave us ).
Let us all do what Elias has recommended.
Elias, I have never seen so bold a person like Elias. We really want person like Elias for Presidant. Hail Elias.
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November 11th, 2007 at 5:01 PM
Such a hatred by Elias with out knowing the effect such war will have on Ethiopia.Mr. Elias all your reasons are blinded by hatred. I totally admire your struggle for justice in Ethiopia. But like it or not Woyannes also are Ethiopians.Can you develop the culture of respect for your opposing parties.Dissent with out hatred.How about that.I thought you are living in the westren society that different opinions are shared for a common goal.
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November 11th, 2007 at 7:06 PM
To Elias and to those who fan his love for anti-Ethiopian elements.
The following article is posted on Garowe Online on 11/10/07, please read it and have your take.In my opinion Elias is saying the samething that bolsters the propoganda that anti-Ethiopia groups have been saying way back the inception of Ethiopia. Some of them infact deny the existence of Ethiopian Sovereignty. You can hate Woyane for its political blunders and anti-democratic activities,but you do not side with those who work hard day and night for the disintigration of our country Ethiopia. Shame! Shame! Shame!
Somalia: Our Puntland brothers must help us end the Nazi Ethiopian Empire
All Puntlanders in the Diaspora and our native dwellers need to understand the significance of this period in the history of Somalia. It is not time to fight each other or to worry about old grudges. We are about to witness the end of the inhumane Ethiopian empire and the Puntland administration should not be the savior of the Ethiopian demons. This is a calling to all Somalis inside “Ethiopia” (Ogadenia), Kenya and Puntland to unite against the Abyssinians and their TFG puppets. It is a calling to join your brothers fighting in Mogadishu and join our Eritrea allies.
These next 4 months will shape the history and the destiny of Somalia, a country that was brutally carved up and cut apart like a piece of cake by the Europeans and their Abyssinian friends. Today is one of the weakest points of this Abyssinian (Ethiopian) empire. This evil empire was supposed to collapse 17 years ago but the criminal Tegrein warlords like Males Zenawi wanted to maintain its inhumane existence to continue the typical Abyssinian parasitical acts of robbing our people and massacring our children. But today, we have another big chance with the help of our friends in Eritrea and with the ONLF and OLF freedom fighters who have never abandoned their people who are imprisoned under this hell on earth.
When Puntlanders blindly give help to the TFG traitors, they should not forget the thousands of innocent civilians who have been massacred in their homes in Ogaadenia by the inhumane Abysinians for the last century. When Puntlanders think about giving help to the TFG, they should remember the millions of innocent people in Ogaadenia and Oromia who have been locked up in this famine infested Morgue “country” that avoided Yugoslavication in 1991 because of the American imperialists. The imperialists want to keep feeding these Amarra and Tegre demons because of their religion and to use them as proxies. But all of the American and Tegre efforts are failing and the oppressed people of east Africa will soon achieve independence!
Patriotic Somalis from around the world have stood up against Ethiopia but Puntland is blocking our freedom. Puntland must stop helping the detested TFG traitors. After the Tegrein warlord Males is defeated by the coalition forces, the only powerful group left in this region will be ONLF and our OLF brothers. So the oppressed people in “Ethiopia” can soon be free but Puntland is still hindering progress by helping the TFG. Overstretching the Tegrein army of Males will not be achieved if Puntland continues to give help to the TFG puppets. The UN has already abandoned the Ethiopian invaders after watching Abysinian corpses dragged around Mogadishu just like the American imperialists during Black Hawk Down. Even humane Abyssinian groups are helping our ONLF fighters to end this evil Ethoipian Empire created by their inhumane forefathers like the bloodthirsty Menelek. So why is Puntland protecting the TFG? Wasting this great opportunity is a crime against Somalia. It is a crime against humanity. The Abyssinians themselves, who never liked each other, are fighting between Amarra and Tegre as they have been mercilessly massacring each other the last 1000 years. Historically, the abesh people are cursed and parasitical creatures who have been drinking blood and tyrannizing east Africa since they arrived from Yemen. To expect any peace from these Abysinians who have no peace among themselves is to be a fool. Today, it is not because of their strength, but only because of our weaknesses and lack of unity among Somalis, which has allowed the Nazi Ethiopian Empire to survive.
While the inhumane Abyssinians stole power from each other the last 1000 years by using violence, Aaden Cadde and our civilized leaders have been giving up power peacefully. This is the holy and democratic history of Somalia, in contrast to the parasitical abesh. Likewise, we need and we fully expect Puntlanders to reflect the proud Somali culture of brotherhood and nationalism that Aaden and all our heroes passed down to us. Stopping the current Puntland assistance to the TFG will significantly weaken the Males army and help our Eritrean brothers finish off the most inhumane empire in world history. All citizens and leaders of Puntland have a historical & moral obligation to stop the suffering of all Somali people who are scattered in imperialist countries of Ethiopia and Kenya.
by Abdirahman Mahdi, mahdi.abdirahman@yahoo.com
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November 11th, 2007 at 8:12 PM
Dear Editor,
The EPLF although has helped in some of the initial training of the TPLF, it is not due to the EPLF that the TPLF succeeded in defeating the Derg army but due to the courage and resoluteness and competence in guriella warfare tactics of the TPLF/EPRDF fighters. Rather it was thanks to the TPLF fighters that the EPLF was totally saved from being annihilated by the Derg army during the 1982 Red Star campaign (a couple of TPLF Brigades under the command of General Hayelom engaged in a diversionay attacks of the Derg Army and rescued the EPLF by giving it a chance to requip and reorganize). Despite some antagonisms the EPLF and TPLF had to cooperate for mutual benefit. Indeed, Eritrea would not have been an independent country today and the EPRDF would not have seized power had both the EPLF and EPRDF not, tactfully, collided.
As opposed to the war in 1998 where the Ethiopian army was dismantled and reduced substantially (out of naivety of trusting the EPLF on the part of the EPRDF leaders), while the EPLF was building and training massive army including air force, this time by and large Ethiopia has a well prepared and trained army. Even taking account of some traitors and deserters, there will be a substantial strong army which will be able to crush the EPLF forces if they pulled a trigger and incited a war.
The people or elements who are now advocating supporting the EPLF in the event of a war, are the same people who, in the previous war of 1998, used to say that the war is “a war between Tigreans and Eritreans” and let them kill each other and called on other Ethiopians to refrain from supporting the government. However, contrary to their expectations and despite the advantage of the sudden attack of the well prepared EPLF forces, the Ethiopian army prevailed. Same history will repeat itself in the event of similar miscalculation by the EPLF leaders.
Most of the above people who posted their views (including the editor) are either Shabia supporters (disguised as Ethiopians) or OLF and ONLF supporters who view Ethiopia a colonial empire and who would like Ethiopia disintegrate like the former Yugoslavia.
Elias, if your proposal is implemented or becomes a reality, a combination of what happened in Yugoslavia and Somalia will repeat itself in Ethiopia. A scenario where the ethnic regions with the more organized liberation fronts taking control of these regions while multiethinic regions or cities like Addis looking like Mogadishu (God forbid this!).
At least under the EPRDF regime, despite some human rights violations and the secession of Eritrea, Ethiopia is more stable, united and peaceful and functioning as a country much better than Somalia, Eritrea or other most war torn regions of Africa. It is inevitable that the EPRDF regime will gradually be replaced through democratic means. Thus, it is better to tolerate some of the pains of the EPRDF rule for some time for the sake of stability and national sovereignty than risking the disintegration of an ancient country with proud people by practicing myopic views.
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November 11th, 2007 at 10:07 PM
Bravo Elias we have nothing to lose than we have already lost under the woyaness.You know what?You got it right.
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November 12th, 2007 at 3:15 AM
Elias, do you think Shabia is better for Ethiopia than Woyanee? Even for Eritrea, Shabia is a catastrophe! I think we should not support any groups who hold Guns! Instead we should have Alliances of democratic organizations and parties from Eritrea to Somalia. That is the only way to free the region from tyranny. To replace one dictator with another worst one will not do the job.
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November 12th, 2007 at 5:45 AM
i think the analysis is good. if ertirea wins oromos will have the upper hand in ethiopia. that is better atleast they are majority.
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November 12th, 2007 at 9:30 AM
what a great essay by elias!!!!! He is just the best. he is one of those rare people with great immagination.
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November 12th, 2007 at 10:26 AM
An outstanding thinking of Elias. Great job. Keep it up!!!
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November 12th, 2007 at 2:07 PM
What will be the reason for weyane to start a war with Eritrea this time? Is it to expedite their burial; is it for Greater Tigray, for benefit of Ethiopia or for U.S imperialism agenda? I will leave this question for you to answer.
For some of you who advocate war against our neighbor, you smell likes the two head two tang weyane. As an Ethiopian, if war started, weyane defeat not only a victory for peace loving people of Ethiopia and Eritrea as well as for the rest of Africa, particularly for the Horn. if you recollection work properly our Eritrean brother, sister and their Government were in our side during the 2005 Election mass murder in Addis exposing the weyane and U.S administration crime against our peace loving people. Is there any African government or Institute or AU which there head quarter in Addis did they have the courage to say any thing. It was Government of Eritrea who spoke day in day out till today for those of you retarded weak-up smell the coffee. Let us get rid of the Cancer of the horn weyane. Stop being house Negro.
Peace!
Awash
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November 12th, 2007 at 4:17 PM
It never fails to amaze me how some Ethiopians want to dwell on the past than planning for the future, a future, hopefully, of peace and cooperation instead of continual hatred and unattainable thinking that is neither achievable nor beneficial to the brotherly peoples of Eritrea and Ethiopia and indeed the Somali brothers as well. Now, does one have to be a rocket scientist or a brain surgeon to realize such fundamental reality? What is all this empty bravado on the part of the cyber warriors when in fact such irresponsible utterance meant nothing less than death and destruction to the Eritrea, Ethiopian and Somali peoples? It may be even negatively affect to others of the region. Is that what we would like to see happen? Where is the benefit of such child tantrum behavior to us and our children? The Weyane will go one way or the other irrespective of US support. But, for the rest of us, I surmise that it is for the benefit of the nations of the Horn to be able to live in tranquility augmenting each others needs rather than squandering it on many meaningless wars. I don’t know about you guys, but our peoples the people in Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea don’t care much for any silly wars that nonetheless consume the young generation for no measurable gain whatsoever!
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November 12th, 2007 at 4:25 PM
I agree that Somalia has become very difficult to govwen and occupy. It has increased somali nationalism and unity as no one wants to be ruled by a weak government supported by a foreigner.
Eritreans have been ding their home work to get supporters in Ethiopia. This is through satelite TV and the email. I can feel several emails in this messages as well. However, encouragin to support the strategic enemies of Ethiopia is shortsitedness and lack of historical understanding. If the ONLF wins in Harer, Diredawa and other cht growing areas are gone forever. The Nile basin without a strong ethiopis might be occupied by Egypt. With all the libration fronts winning there will not be a central government in Ethiopia. One thing that is missing from the ER analysis is if Eritrea defeates the Ethiopian army what will the plan of Shaebia be after it occupies Ethiopia. Please note that while the Fronts will adminster their regions and establsih independent coutnries, the rest of Ethiopia might be occupied by Shaebia. I wonder what ER will say to such a senario. I will never support the strategic enemies of Ethiopia. Governments come and go but the country still remains the same. God Save Ethiopia,
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November 12th, 2007 at 11:34 PM
good for u and for all the racist but not for real honest ethiopians we need peace u don’t want to see one ethiopia with love u … hate words and the poor prople are paying the price not u foolish mind.
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November 12th, 2007 at 11:48 PM
Brother Elias God bless you. You are reay a true patriot. To the weyanes and their folowers, do not waste your time lecturing us that Shabiya or Eritreans are our mortal enemies. They are not. Our enemy is weyane and its pupets. The Sumalis or Eritrean infact the whole horn African people are our brothers. The only reason we hate shabiya is they brought you to power. So, do not fool yourseves that you can play us fools. The sad thing is, you are just propogating to go to war with Eritrea but your evil muster melles knows well this time will his end, because this time it will be his agazi and some poor informed Tigreans that will die for him not us or the majority Tigrai people. Therefore, weyane is coward to star war this time because the last time he did, we saved his ass but not this time.
God bless Ethiopia and the end of weyane is coming.
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November 13th, 2007 at 3:45 AM
Good analysis Elias and keep the good work. You are making the weyane wet on their pants.
God bless Ethiopia and the end of weyane is near.
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November 13th, 2007 at 3:51 AM
I commend you brother Elias for your full dedication to your country. My message here is to those Weyane cadres trying to lecture us that Shabiya is our enemy. We hate Shabiya because they brought you to us and to power. Now the time is up Weyane go home.
God bless Ethiopia.
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November 13th, 2007 at 1:35 PM
I’m an avid Ethiopianreview visitor. I agree with most of your analysis all the time. This is the time I draw the line. Shabia is as bad as Woyane. Both regime should be dismantled. If you think, my enemy’s enemy is my friend. You are dead wrong. What happened to your memory? have you lost it or you really don’t want to remember?
Weyane and Shabia have been disintegrating, raping, stealing Ethiopia till the recent years. The grandoize idea could not go thru and fell around 2000. What makes you sure that Meles and his crime family will want the end of Shabia? They are the same thugs who killed and massacred non-Tigrayans Ethiopians for years. Please Elias get real and stop this non-sense. No peace-loving patriotic Ethipian with the right mind will agree with your analysis.
Weyane and Shabia need each other to survive. I’m sure you remember Sebhat Nega’s interview on Eritra issue. Unless you have hidden agenda that I’m not aware of, please don’t fall from grace.
-Tazabiw.
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November 13th, 2007 at 1:44 PM
Elias GOOD JOB! Woyanne is our number one eniemy. I support always the people who they love Democracy. Death to Woyanne and its supporters! Long live for real Ethiopians.
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November 13th, 2007 at 1:48 PM
Elias without a doubt is a true Ethiopian and a sage man.He is on the mark.Ethiopia will be better off when the Woyannes are defeated.This TPLF nightmare must end.It can`t get any worse than this.
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November 13th, 2007 at 6:23 PM
Good analysis!!!
My hope was always to see free Oromia in the horn of Africa. However, I could loosen my stance like many of my fellow Oromos given that a free and democratic system emerges in that region including Eritrea and Somalia. This way everyone wins; even Woyanne supporters.
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November 13th, 2007 at 7:08 PM
I want to make 3 points regarding, Arman’s (No. 106) comments.
1 .Arman perpetuates the myth of TPLF military prowess. The facts are otherwise. The turning point and TPLF’s meteoric rise came once the organization entered into partnership with a Western intelligence agency to undermine the Derg.
Under the guise of famine assistance, TPLF received over $100 million US dollars. How do i know this. It’s public knowledge; all detailed in a book called Without Guns or Tanks. The author is Pendergast.
2. There is no gradual move towards democracy by the TPLF government. TPLF killings and reign of terror after the 2005 elections are enough proof that the avenue for peaceful struggle in Ethiopia has been closed. Meles has made it clear many times: we came to power using guns; don’t fool yourselves thinking we will give it away through elections.
3. The TPLF leadership and those who got rich by serving it have found Ethiopia’s wealth the foreign money flowing in sweeter than honey. They will not give it up through elections. They have made it abundantly clear in the last 16 years.
That is why we need to ally even with the devil to get rid of TPLF. Don’t get me wrong: I am no lover of Eritrea. But if Eritrea was good enough to bring the rag tag TPLF to power, it should be just as good for Amharas, Oromos, Sidamas, Somalis, etc.
The sooner we understand these truths, the faster the liberation of Ethiopia.
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November 14th, 2007 at 9:58 PM
the analysys was good. but i don;t think woyane are that foolish to start war with eritrea. but i would definitely agree with ur point and i wish they go to the war.
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November 14th, 2007 at 10:17 PM
Excellent analysis. The question however remains that the consequence of a power vacuum could be grave. Opposition forces should therefore agree on the form and content of a provisional government in order to avoid chaos after the demise of the repressive Woyanne regime.
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November 15th, 2007 at 2:37 AM
The greatest worry has been if the two criminals meet at the battlefield, which is coming soon,economy situation of Isayas Afeworky regime will not take the battle through; so Meles Zinawi knows this problem so that he kept on teasing and fightenen him almost daily. On the other hand, Meles Zinawi knows he has no support from Ethiopians and he knew that he is on his own along with his crime family. In the end, he must know what he and his crime family will face; of course, justice.
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November 15th, 2007 at 10:51 AM
Elias my dear with all due respect, what you are writing is deeper than the superficials you put in. I respect you; very much I have been reading your magazine for over two decades, but this one is not a deep analysis. This war is not for Africa. It is not for Eriterea. It is not for Somalia. This war is for the supermacies of the international conglamorates. It is a war for colonialism of the whole of Africa in the 21st Century. Period.
Tazabi
African masses will not gain anything including yourself.
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November 15th, 2007 at 2:49 PM
who killed all the enocent ethiopians in gambella sidama amhara and ogadenians not toforget the victim twice in addis ababa so please first let us pray for the tplf victims for one minute then start fighing for our coutry sake and our mothers sake.
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November 15th, 2007 at 6:51 PM
Elias,
Congratulations and thank you for the sound analysis. Meles and his cronnies had 16 years to govern Ethiopia fairly. They chose not to.What a waste of opportunity!. Instead they spent all those years perfecting how to loot everyone else other than themselves and massacring the rest of Ethiopians.
Now, the Woyanne and their supporters (some of whom are participants of this forum)have nothing else to tell Ethiopians other than scaring us by saying that Shabia and Somalia are our eternal and strategic enemies bent to dismember Ethiopia!. What a joke!. Why Eritreans, if they wanted to, did not partition Ethiopia when they had the chance 16 years ago?. As for Somalia, there is no even point of talking about them as they have been without central goverment and national army since Meles came to power and therefore posed no threat to Ethiopia. As for the talk of a threat from Somalia’s islamist and presumed justification of Meles’s invasion to Somalia, the islamist were not even able to extend their influence to two thirds of Somalia let alone Ethiopia.
If there ever was a cancer in the Horn of Africa it is none other than the Woyanne and their supporters. They created the wars and hostilities with Eritrea and Somalia and most importantly are responsible for the sad state of affairs within Ethiopia.
However, the crimes and past wrongdoings are catching up fast the Woyannes and as every regime led by morones the cracks and inevitable downfall has already began. No Ethiopian should be fooled by answering their war cry as it will only extend their hold on to power and by extension the suffering and massacre of innocent civilians. The wars with Eritrea and Somalia are NOT Ethiopian wars. It is TPLF wars-period!.
Sadly, in the non distance future someone else (i.e a good Ethiopian)has to take care of their wrongdoings and begin the healing process both within Ethiopia and with our neighbors.
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November 15th, 2007 at 8:56 PM
let us remember what tplf did to gambella sidama ogaden amhara and oromian people let us pray for all the tplf victims for one minute. if we are united we can be free
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November 15th, 2007 at 8:59 PM
Reply to #s 123 and 129
1. When fighting the Derg, TPLF/EPRDF’s military might was not a myth it was a reality. It is not because they were super human but because they had the support of marginalized and dispossesed courageous people who would rather die than facing the agony of a tyrant military junta rule. TPLF/EPRDF had defeated the EDU, the EPRP, the ELF, and the Derg between 1978 and 1991 and the Ethiopian army led by EPRDF defeated the EPLF in 2000 at the battlefield. Robert Kaplan on page 92 in his book Surrender or Starve (1988) stated that although lacking the equipment and infrastructure development, the TPLF was still one of the best-trained, nongovernmental fighting forces in the world.
2. Unlike the EPLF who used to receive massive military aid from the Arab countries, the TPLF virtually had no support from the western world other than loads of trucks of grain for the drought affected people who were under their jursdiction. In fact, since they were marxists, they had no support; nor were they much recognized by the western world let alone using western intelligence. In fact, once the west noticed the miraclous military success of the TPLF/EPRDF, the west had no choice but to accept and recognize them.
2. EPLF did not bring TPLF/EPRDF to power. Rather TPLF played a very decisive role for the capture of Eritrea by the EPLF. Most Ethiopians had resentment with the EPRDF, to begin with, due to its role in the secession of Eritrea. Had it not been for the fight between Ethiopians (the TPLF vs the Derg) the EPLF would have never been able to seize Eritrea by force and Eritrea would have still remained part of Ethiopia. In 1989 (two years before the dwonfall of the Derg), The TPLF liberated the entire Tigray while the EPLF could not liberate 1/3 of Eritrea. Once the EPRDF captured Gondar, Wello, parts of Gojam and North Shoa where the majority of the Ethiopian government soldiers were engaged, the EPLF was able to capture most of Eritrea.
3. Comment # 129 indicated that EPLF had a chance to disintegrate Ethiopia 16 years ago, if it wanted. However, EPLF had no capacity to divide Ethiopia. Had the EPLF tried to do so, it would have jeoparadized not only the secession of Eritrea but also its own very existence (The EPLF is not that foolish). The EPRDF forces would have dealt with such issue decisively. In fact, the Ethiopian people, who resented the secession of Eritrea, would have supported the EPRDF.
4. EPLF has a vested interest in a weakened and divided Ethiopia. If Ethiopia is weak and divided, no one would challenge Eritrea’s independence and claim sea port. Also, the EPLF would be able to take advantage of Ethiopian economic resources. Thus, it is utterly foolish to imagine that Ethiopia will be able to continue as a united strong nation state, if EPLF gets the upper hand. EPLF is untrustowrthy. It even betrayed the TPLF/EPRDF, the very institution which helped Eritrea to become an independent country contrary to the will of the Ethiopian masses. Thus, it is naive think that EPLF would like to see a strong, prosperous and united Ethiopia.
Long live Ethiopia!
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November 16th, 2007 at 1:43 AM
This is a response to Dawit, No. 131, above and to those like him.
There is iron clad proof that TPLF’s rise to power has everything to do with its secret alliance with a Western intelligence agency and the money, arms and management that came with that.
The same Western intelligence agency that armed and funded the Mujahiddin in Afghanistan during the Cold War was also behind the TPLF’s rise to power. Over $100 million in American funding over a short period of time in a poor country goes a long way. That special relationship continues to bring riches to TPLF and misery to the Ethiopian people.
TPLF had a Marxist army with imperialist funding. How convenient! I have the facts to prove it, if necessary. Prove me wrong.
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November 16th, 2007 at 9:23 AM
I’m a Somali brother from Somalia,
Dear Ethiopians, as you know today my nation is under occupation, not from Ethiopia but from an evil and a brutal entity called Woyyane. They have caused destruction and pain; they killed thousands and displaced millions. They are making my nation and people bleed. But we swear that one day however long it takes, we will avenge for the dead and overrun Woyyane and its habitats. One day, we will reduce Woyyane to utter ruin. For us Somalis, we have been unwavering friend of Ethiopia, the land of peace and co-existence. No society on earth is so embracing like the Ethiopian society. Unfortunately, that truth has been dented by Meles and the Woyyane. Unless they are uprooted and reduced to ashes, Ethiopia will bleed under their rule and our nation too will suffer.
We support the struggle of the Ethiopian masses for freedom, equality and prosperity. We detest and discourage wars, hate, bigotry and disturbances. But Ethiopia today under the watch of Woyyane and its tyranny is nothing but a den of evil. Destroying that den of evil so that Ethiopia comes back to the world stage as the cradle of civilization is your national and human duty. For us Somalis, you are our brothers and sisters. We harbour no hate towards you; after all, most of Ethiopians are suffering like us from the brutality of Meles and his Woyyane regime. I hope Shabia or anyone crushes Meles and his forces so that a new Ethiopia under a loving leadership builds peace with Eritrea and peace too in the region. When we stand up as a nation (day follows the night and this is bound to come), we will compare the notes with the remnants of the Woyyane and only then they will know how terrible we are. Our lasting friendship with the Ethiopian nation and people is eternal. No one should doubt it and no moment will it suffer any cracks. The Somalis who live in Ethiopia are suffering like the rest of Ethiopian communities and that’s why they are crying for separation, but if things improve in Ethiopia, I’m sure no one will like the idea of secession; after all, Ethiopia is the cradle of co-existence and tolerance. This will depend on Woyyane and how long they can survive. Work hard so that you help Ethiopia and its neighbours. Ethiopia needs its neighbours much as its neighbours need Ethiopia. Our future and destiny is one. Peace to you and death to Meles and Woyyane!
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November 16th, 2007 at 1:14 PM
Response to Dewitt #131
If I didn’t feel that some bogus statements of the type Dawit is using without any concrete proof to support his wild assertions about what may or may not happened during the armed struggle of both the EPLF or TPLF, I would have simply not bothered to respond to his statements. You see Mr. Dawit, it does not do any good to regurgitate what some blind supporters of Weyane have been telling us just to score a point on how Weyane was the best thing that God gave Ethiopia since the invention of bread. Ethiopia does not need some recitation of blank and emptiness. What Ethiopia and the Ethiopian people need and deserve is something concrete that is going to better their lot. But, even if one is going to take your wild presentations as FACTS, what good does the average Ethiopian gets from such things that has happened in the past and for which no ordinary Ethiopian is the benefactor of such happenings. Isn’t it time for people like you to start thinking about the present and future of the Ethiopian people than dwell on some fantasy of the past? Remember you and I and the rest of ER visitors can argue back and forth until the cows come home. But, if our argument is not based on facts and solely on some emotions tantamount to child tantrum, how do you expect the Ethiopian people to get anything out of our futile discussion. I would suggest, let what happened in the last 16 years and beyond be analyzed by historians and let us NOW address the dire issues the people of the Horn find themselves and help them out in anyway we know how. Otherwise just repeating and rehashing the old and tired empty slogans do not turn into food, medicine and education and peace, which they need most. I have always said this and let me say it again: you and I may be well of because of where we are, but, we must ALWAYS think and worry on how negatively it is affecting them now and any more war will negatively affect the people who are actually living in the Horn. Shouldn’t that be our main concern at this time should another senseless war is unleashed by the Weyane gangs? I would hope so.
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November 16th, 2007 at 2:19 PM
Reply to No.131
Courage, while necessary, is not a substitute to military machine and TPLF did not fight with barehands against the DERG. Military equipment and fund to run effective guerilla warfare don’t grow on trees they have to come from somewhere. It just happened that some of us knew where help to TPLF was flowed from. The talk of TPLF’s marxist roots(hence didn’t get help from Western countries) doesn’t cut either since politics is complex enough to allow-when convenient- Marxist, Capitalists and Religious extremists all in the same bed and there are plenty of precedents.
As for your claim that “had it not been for the fight between Ethiopians (TPLF vs Derg) the EPLF would have never been able to sieze Eritrea by force and Eritrea would have still remained part of Ethiopia”. Amazing!.
*To your disappointment, I thought and many would agree that TPLF was nothing but a junior partner to EPLF in defeating the DERG.
* “Fighting between Ethiopians i.e TPLF vs DERG” since when TPLF belonged to Ethiopia?!. If you care to know when TPLF abandoned the idea of establishing The Marxist Leninist Republic of Tigray and chose to remain in Ethiopia, all you have to do is to look for their political program (before 1989 version).
*EPRDF. Must be kidding!. Who is EPRDF who allegedly helped defeat the DERG?.
* EPRDF was formed and is to this day a convenient cover to TPLF rule and the non-TPLF members of EPRDF neither contributed to the downfall of the DERG nor it has any input in running the country.
The DERG was primary defeated by a combination of 1977 Ogaden war between Ethiopia and Somalia (both Mingistu Haile Marian and Somalia’s Siad Barre never fully recovered from it and in the end both fell few months from one another), the protracted armed struggle by combined TPLF and EPLF forces that exhuasted and bled the DERG to death, the ever growing internal discontent, economic and political bankrupcy and the weakening and eventual collapse of the DERG’s ally ; the Eastern bloc.
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November 16th, 2007 at 4:48 PM
No. 135 please note that
No amount of military aid or western intelligence is not a substitue for committment, courage, determination and descipline either. If it was, FNLA and UNITA, who received not only massive military support from the U.S. but also troops and military hardware from apartheid South Africa, would have prevailed over MPLA during their fight to set up a government in Angola in the 1970s. If military expenditure was a determining factor, the Derg’s $4 billion worth of military expenditure,would have saved it from its final downfall. If money and western intelligence were determining factors, the U.S. would have prevailed over Vietnam.
No other Ethiopian is more Ethiopian than Tigreans. Ethiopia has never been without Tigray and viceversa. Much of Ethiopian history is based in Tigray. Tigray is the cradle of Ethiopian religion (both Christianity and Islam), government, alphabet, literature, architecture,etc. Over the centuries, Tigreans have paid more than their fair share of sacrifices in defending the sovereignty of Ethiopia. To mentions just a few, a little bit over a century ago, emperor Yohannes defeated foreign invaders at the battle of Gura, Gundet (both are in present day Eritrea)and Metema. Ras Alula, who is from Tigray and who as a governor of the present day Eritrea founded the city of Asmara, won the battle with the Italians at Dogali (near Massawa)(the first time Europeans to lose a battle to Africans). At the battle of Adwa, thousands of Tigreans sacrificed their lives along with other Ethiopians and foiled an attempt of colonization by the Italians. Hence, if indeed the TPLF, had such an idea to establish an independent Tigray, that idea was highly absurd and that political program was flawed. The people of Tigray would have never accepted it. That is why also they abandoned it. Eventhen, that does not disqualify them from being Ethipian. Because the true history is otherwise. That is why the fighting between the TPLF and the Derg was a fighting between Ethiopians. That division and fight between Ethiopians helped EPLF to secure the secession of Eritrea. The EPLF supporters who are using this website posing as Ethiopians are still trying to create ethnic divisions to carry out their strategic objectives of a disintegrated Ethipia.
With respect to TPLF being a junior partner, it took the TPLF 15 years to take the entire Tigray while it took the EPLF 30 years to enter Asmara. Indeed age wise the EPLF is 15 years senior to the TPLF. However, excellence is not achieved by the number of years in the bush but by the extent of accomplishments. The TPLF surpassed the EPLF in terms of accomplishments and gains. People have the wrong perception about the EPLF because the EPLF through its PR is very noisey (empty barrel), best at misinforming and brags too much about itself. However, its noises are nothing but a bluff, as it was proven during the battle of Badme.
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November 17th, 2007 at 1:32 AM
I like your articles like this one,please continue, but pls don’t insult our heros like Eng.Hailu and others.
weyane go hell.
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November 17th, 2007 at 9:16 AM
TPLF has a skilled defender in Dawit, No. 136.
But I appreciate the fact that Dawit does not deny that TPLF was financed and run by a Western spy agency. That relationship continues to this day wreaking havoc not only in Ethiopia, but also all over Horn of Africa.
Granted, Dawit qualifies the importance of foreign assistance saying it’s no substitute for “committment, courage, determination and descipline” which the TPLF supposedly had in abundance. Dawit confuses courage with a thirst for power.
TPLF is the first Ethiopian group that sold its heart and soul to foreigners to get to power.
The comparison with Unita of Angola is also very apt, with Meles Zenawi as the Jonas Savimbi of Tigrai. Who said Unita did not have courage and commitment? It just so happens that Ethiopia Unita succeeded.
The TPLF has done very well for itself at the expense of Ethiopia. It will do anything to stay in power, including sacrificing Ethiopian soldiers as hired mercenaries in the service of foreign powers.
This tribal fascist group is now the source of much pain and suffering in Ethiopia and Somalia. It stands accused of genocide and crimes against humanity both in Somalia and Ethiopia.
History will not look kindly on this group. Sooner or later there will be a war crimes tribunal and TPLF leaders and their accomplices will have to face the music.
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November 17th, 2007 at 11:04 AM
Response to #136,
Dawit please don’t insult the intelligence of the Ethiopian people. Since when is the make believe story of the ‘alphabet” from Tigray? While Geez is the common source to the Semitic languages of Tigrigna and Amharic among others, don’t tell us it was produced in Tigrai. In fact, I remember when I was a student of HSI University in Arat Kilo campus, some Tigreans in the hostels we shared used to wonder and ask some Eritreans reading letters written to them in Tigrigna, “Ewae debdabie btgrgna ytsehafdiu?” meaning “debdabie betgrgna ytsafalwey”? They said they spoke Tigrigna but when it came to writing, they always wrote in Amharic. That doesn’t sound Tigrai quite a source of alphabet like you stated, does it? People like Dawit live in exaggerations and some fancy stories they like the rest of us to believe. Why don’t you people just be yourself instead of trying to live beyond your limit? The question was never where the alphabet was discovered or born anyway. The question is how do we get rid of the pests in Ethiopia? Do you have a suggestion, please share it with us. Otherwise resuscitating a dead horse can’t bring it back to life. Wakeup and smell the Ethiopian coffee and realize that the days of your Weyane and their supporters are numbered.
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November 18th, 2007 at 12:08 AM