Ethiopian pro-democracy forces need to closely examine the Obama Administration’s policy toward Libya that is based on short-sighted naked self interest and examine their strategy accordingly. The following is an insightful analysis by David From that was posted on The Telegraph today.
Barack Obama is in no hurry to see Gaddafi go
By David Frum
Would President Obama prefer a Gaddafi victory? If that sounds implausible, then just look at the record. On March 3, Obama announced that Gaddafi “must go”. Two weeks have passed since then – and more than a month since the uprising began on February 15. In the interim, the tide of war has turned in Gaddafi’s favour. Yet Obama has done nothing to make his own words reality.
Every proposal – from the no-fly zone and aid to rebels, to recognition of a provisional government – has somehow become bogged down.
The administration never rejected the proposals out of hand, but it never accepted them either. And now time, so very unfortunately, has run out. Admittedly, the American government moves slowly. But it does not move this slowly.
The Obama administration may not care to admit it, but it did make a decision, and one of benefit to Gaddafi. Why? One factor was surely Obama’s preference for a less activist foreign policy in general.
But there were special considerations in Libya, and they were clearly stated in a piece by General Wesley Clark for the Washington Post last Friday. The former US commander in Kosovo and a 2004 Democratic presidential candidate wrote: “We don’t have a clearly stated objective, legal authority, committed international support or adequate on-the-scene military capabilities, and Libya’s politics hardly foreshadow a clear outcome.”
The key phrase here is “Libya’s politics”. For the past few days, Washington policy circles have been worrying over a piece of research circulated last week: “On a per capita basis … twice as many foreign fighters came to Iraq from Libya – and specifically eastern Libya – than from any other country in the Arabic-speaking world. Libyans were apparently more fired up to travel to Iraq to kill Americans than anyone else in the Middle East. And 84.1 per cent [74] of the 88 Libyan fighters … who listed their hometowns came from either Benghazi or Darnah in Libya’s east.”
That might not seem a statistically valid survey of public opinion inside Libya. But given the prevailing lack of information about the anti-Gaddafi insurgency, the factoid acted to corroborate fears of an Islamist takeover of Libya – or, maybe worse, the collapse of Libya into a Somalia-on-the-Mediterranean.
Perhaps President Obama reasoned something along these lines: “Yes, Gaddafi is a very bad guy. But he quit the terrorism business a decade ago and paid compensation to the families of victims of the Lockerbie bombing. He surrendered his nuclear program in 2003. He co-operates with the EU in stopping illegal migration into Italy. He is a reliable oil supplier and a good customer for Western companies.
“It’s very sad to see Gaddafi crush an uprising so brutally. But things could be worse. Tribal leaders, fighting each other, inspired by Islamic ideology – all just 300 miles from the coast of Sicily? We could have 300,000 refugees showing up on the Nato side of the Mediterranean. Better stick with the devil we know. The blood-letting cannot last much longer, stability will return soon. And then we can express regret for the loss of life, offer humanitarian assistance and impose some kind of sanctions on the Gaddafi family – at least until the fuss dies down.”
Europeans who invested so much hope in Barack Obama may hesitate to accept the news that their man is not the idealist they had imagined. But Arab leaders have already got the message: Mubarak was a fool, don’t resign in the face of protests, instead use force. The king of Bahrain has learnt the lesson of Libya: he is importing Saudi troops to suppress local protesters. Whoever called this moment the Arab 1848 had it right – assuming, that is, that the anonymous wit remembered how the original 1848 turned out.
But let’s consider what meaning the Arab 1848 has for the West. Over the past near-decade, how often have voices in Britain and Europe reproached the Bush administration for its foolish infatuation with Arab democracy? Look at what happened in the Palestinian Authority, where the locals used their votes to vote for Hamas – and never got a chance to use them a second time. Look at what happened in Iraq, where the overthrow of a dictator opened the door to civil war, terrorism and Iranian influence. And indeed, the criticisms were powerful, as far as they went.
But Libya confronts us with the consequences of the opposite policy. As happened in Iraq in 1991, the world is acquiescing in the brutal suppression of a popular uprising by an Arab dictator. Will this violently reasserted dictatorship be “stable”? If those data on Libyan suicide bombers are correct, then Gaddafi’s dictatorship has bred Islamic resistance. Will more violence intensify Libya’s Islamification? And since no regime lasts for ever, what will Europe face across
the Mediterranean when the regime does finally go?
Libya confronts us, too, with the folly of the traditional “realist” response to Islamic radicalism: the delusion that somehow the carving of a Palestinian state out of Israel will pacify the region. Are the boys of Benghazi fighting for Palestine? How exactly would installing a Palestinian president-for-life in east Jerusalem reconcile Libyans to a second generation of Gaddafis seizing Libya’s oil wealth as their personal fortune?
Libya is Obama’s Iraq in reverse. The fighting may end faster when the dictator survives. But the consequences may reveal themselves as no less ugly, no less large, and no less enduring.
25 thoughts on “Obama appears to prefer a Gaddafi victory”
Off Course the US want Gaddafi to win for one they don’t want democracy to
Africa at all that is because US admin they would rather work with a few
individuals in the Govt as the same time they want this revolution to stop
soon with out going farther African countries which the US have its puppets.
The article answer the question itself “interst,interst, interst” “Yes, Gaddafi is a very bad guy. But he quit the terrorism business a decade ago and paid compensation to the families of victims of the Lockerbie bombing. He surrendered his nuclear program in 2003. He co-operates with the EU in stopping illegal migration into Italy. He is a reliable oil supplier and a good customer for Western companies.
HE WILL PAY ANOTHER COMPENSATION WITH OIL THIS TIME.
Obama said “Gaddfi must go” but he never said he would use American forces to unseat him. That should be left to the Libyans themselves. There is I believe a huge fundamental difference between those two. David Frum will be the first person to come out in full swing screaming if Obama is to go the other way. America has Iraq and Afghanistan on its hand and adding Libya should not be in its list. There are tyrants all over the place including Ethiopia, if America to be helpful, it needs to disperse its support to all people who are fighting to eliminate tyrants around the globe, instead of investing its much needed attention and resource on one nation. This was tested in Iraq or Afghanistan and turned out to be costly and unwise. David Frum used to be Bush’s brain. Now when the neo cons are turned against him and his golden days are over, it is easy to understand his desire to rehabilitate his fortune by sounding reasonable.
why Barack Obama is not hurry to see Gaddafi to go? that means America do not want any more special relation with UK? or they do not have any money for war? the answer is they do not want to see real democracy in developing world
Obama is a multilateralist and not unilateralist like P.Bush and is not going to fight other people’s fights by himself and on their behalf. He can help those who are democrats both in words and in actions and helping themselves.
Qaxxafi Gaddafi completely suffocated and prevented the birth and developments of any democracy and traces of pluralistic political culture, as a result of which some part of opposition and the incipient “democrats” and perhaps also autocrats were displaying their incompetence by branding anything African as mercenaries and brutally butchering them with out any due process of law. That is barbarism in its reckless sense. Gaddafi was not better himself. He colluded with fascist Berlusconi and made Libya the concentration camps of poor African refugees just to please his mentors in the South and North.
Libyan opposition behavior also removed some of the sympathies they were suppose to easily bring home. If you are resisting dictatorship and fighting for democracy how on earth are you bent on massacring people who are absolutely at your own mercy? Hmmm.
Regardless I wish them success!
Gaddafi on Barrak Obama: “Obama is a Muslim and that Obama has an inferiority complex.”
I rest my case, will not vote for OBAMA when election come. I pray that he ended being a one term president.
I agree with Kongit. We MUST NOT vote for Obama again.
I feel for Obama, man. Until up to the beginning of this year, this Badawi was doing almost every thing as asked by the west. Now this. And his opposition not cohesive. This is heading to an utter rout unless something miraculously comes out in favor of the disorganized opposition. One lingering positive item that has been consistent in the Desert Mad Dog’s resume is his unwavering stand against religious extremism. If Al-Qaeda gets hold of him, it will skin him alive. He was equally ruthless against them too. But the main piece of puzzle that is missing in the Libyan theater is a strong and unified opposition. It is a lesson to own countrymen and women who seem to be in disarray in their opposition to the ruling party. We have our own share of a history of losing the fruit of the sacrifices of our brave children that paid with their lives in the 1970’s. They were prohibited from uniting their struggle for human and democratic rights by sinister groups who divide them along so-called national and fruitless ideological lines. They told the ever-energetic, ever-innovative youth, ‘you are Meison first not an Ethiopian, you are an EPRP first and not an Ethiopian, you are a Tigrean first and not an Ethiopian, you are an OLF first and not an Ethiopia. It you hear the other guy saying ‘We will win’ not ‘We shall win’ he is your mortal enemy. Shoot him and no question asked’. Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!! Precious boys and daughters of our people, the very people these children want to see better days for killed each other to extinction. Some of the leaders of those sinister groups had survived the mayhem and came out writing books to tell us what happened and in the process to exonerate themselves. But they are in no position to accept the fact that they also have a part in the demise of thousands upon thousands of the cream of the crop of our society for nothing. I said for nothing because just look what we end up after almost 35 years after those precious kids lost their lives in the most horrible ways. I still vividly remember some of those courageous but so naive young people who went back home from here after they were told that EPRP is at the door step of taking power or Meison was an inch away from the palace and later on OLF was knocking on the doors of the former residence of Haile Mariam. I remember how one of them was so upset when I told him to be very careful. And I found out his name was the list of those killed during slaughter in the late seventies. His sacrifice. Fruitless!!!! Because the leaders of those splinter groups had sinister plans of their own. Mao led hundreds of millions of poor peasants and urban dweller to victory and ended up slaughtering by historian estimates more than 50 million of them after he took power. Stalin did even better when he let more than 30 million peasants starve to death at one sitting. EPRP espoused the teachings of these man eaters and so did Meison, the Derg, OLF, TPLF, EPLF and I would be surprised if ONLF leaders have not crammed themselves with the sonnets of Mao, Lenin and Stalin. And of course, also the great Enver Hoxha, the idol of this former cactus-munching goon from Dedebit. We have to pay attention to what is going on in Libya. The current politically active individuals who are grouped around such houses as EPRP, Meison, OLF, ONLF and many others should acknowledge the fact their disunity is delaying the time when our people live like the people in Chile, Uruguay, Argentina, Taiwan, Costa Rica, The USA, Canada and the likes with the slightest fear of being thrown into horrible jails because they happen to differ in their political views. They should come out in the open to tell all us that they have denounced the tenets of Marxism they drove thousands of precious kids to their fruitless death with. Unless they do this, they will remain to be menace to our society and should be left alone to their own device in their comfy habitats in Paris, Washington, Dubai, Oslo, St. Paul and where ever they may be. I understand why Brother Elias more than once demanded an organization to tell us its immediate and long-term plan. I share his frustrations. And it is a legitimate one that has its origins from experience. Just look what happened to CUD since 2005. Disgusting!!!!! Utterly disgusting!!!!
Lol….. Obama cares and his multi national firms care if they still gonna have the lucrative oil contract in Libya. Period!
Libya’s Oil is the most sought after with its ultra low sulphur impurities….. All the Western firms were enjoying the lucrative contract handed in by Gadaffi….. enslaving his people & resources in private but running his anti-West stance in public……. The West don’t mind that as long as they keep getting their cuts…….
It’s funny that we get to fail to see the bigger pics……
Opportunists should not be allowed to hijack the people’s revolution!!!
Viva Revoluçione !!!!
It is a lesson for us, ethiopians, The US and the west in general care little and dont think we need democracy, “they have to go furthur under tyranny until they are ready for democracy”, that is what they think for us. The Egyptians and tunisians did their revolution by themselves, they didnt need the support of the west or US. When every day events take lives in bundles in Libya, Obama tells us the case is still on the table, it is simple as the article pointed out they will say sorry for the loss of lives finally and as usual. Thus this and other tangible factors, make us rely on our strengh to crash the rebel regime in our country, US and others would never liberate us, The US and the west Only need some one at the top, that is harmless for them, and who cares for the rest?
Democracy is only by Rfor whites it is sad but it is reality. The White Man`s Burden, a poem by Rudyard Kipling written for Queen Victoria`s Diamond jubilee proposes that “white people consequently have an obligation to rule over, and encourage the cultural development of people from other ethnic and cultural backgrounds until they can take their place in the World by fully adopting Western ways”. No democracy for Ethiopians until Macdonald opens its branch in Addis and a Western (our guy) take the leadership.
David Frum is an ultra conservative and lacks objectivity. It is not that David Frum is pro-democracy as his sole intent is to discredit Obama.
He was after all W. Bush speech writer. Please refer to Kumlacew’s post above for a real analysis.
Melkam Ken
USA and UK are the big problem for Africa and middle Esat to build democracy. if Africa and Middle esat excercisse the democracy , USA will get problem to get her slave leaders. Obama support gaddafi and other dictataor because of thier benifite.we Ethiopian stand together to fight Melese’s woyane.Bush is better than Obama.
It is interesting to observe that we Ethiopians come together and discuss burning national problems as well as trying to find solutions.
But the worrisome dependency trend is that we generally seem to push and place our duties and responsibilities concerning our own country unilaterally on to the shoulders of distant foreigners and waiting for the magic solutions while blaming them in unison day and night when expected results happen to be absent or may even back fire.
It is great surprise for many as to why the Ethiopians themselves could not and cannot take viable and respectable alternative national actions on such important national questions first and foremost, exploiting the abundantly existing current and potential opportunities available to themselves and demanding their active attention.
Foreign dependency and playing a helpless entity is the Ethiopian government’s specialty from the past to the present but the new generation needs to disentangle itself from the shackling chains of such disgraceful trend. First better to help oneself to the maximum possible extent and intent and then ONLY then call for help and hesitance of all kinds.
Even in the Libyan case both the EU and the US are channeling aids and supports to the opposition, while Russia, Chine, Algeria, Syria, etc. are propping up dictator Gaddafi. Is that brother president Obama’s fault?
Although colonialism was over long ago, it has continued in a different form. Local dictators use that situation to continue their absolute power. What happened in Tunisia and Egypt was unexpected but its spread is being systematically undermined. We may believe that Obama may be trying to eat with two forks or is just a puppet just as others and live to serve the oil and military industry. In any case the Obama (Clinton and Gates) administration, the Germans, the Saudis, the Algerians dictators and pro-dictators have been working day and night towards it. It seems they are gaining success in Libya and will continue stamping out movements for democracy in Yemen and other countries including Ethiopia. Things will be glimmer and more miserable for the common people more than ever. I know we don’t have resource curse as Libyans have but we have nationality curse that buttresses dictatorship.
It is a win-win situation to the world strongest ones. The West would like to check spread of democracy in oil and minerals rich countries to exploit resources by dealing with stable, predictable dictators. Russia, China, Iran, Saudi others would like to see the crushing defeat of the opposition in Libya as a precedence for their action against oppositions in their own country. The West may sound pro-democracy but is just a phony talk unless the dictator comes after their interest or race as Mugabe did against the Whity. All, the right and the left are happy. Libyans and oppressed people of other countries are bound to lose.
Capital and corruption are winning again!!!!
The poor, the common people are losing. Any way the heaven is for the poor, the rich is just like..the eye of the middle…
To begin with, America should not interefer to any body’s business at the expenses of the Tax payers money. Any upsrising from any county should be within the means of the opposition, otherwise, no external power will do the job for you for free. The true freedom will come after the sweate and blood you shed. Freedom should be earned not begged.
obama run his campaign on ending wars in afghan and iraq. he got a huge deficit on hand and an economy that just recovering right now and a whole lot of problems more than any US presidents had to go through in 2 yrs. Republicans watch his every step and bent on ripping him apart like mad dogs when ever they get a chance no matter the decision he makes. he is only a human after all.And we criticize him for not fighting the Libyans war? what good came out of toppling Saddam and Taliban? and at what cost? we all should look to find our own ways to make change in our country than blaming other countries’ governments for not spilling their own blood for our freedom. i am glad he is a multilateral and cares for his own first.
Obama is all about himself. After all, this is a man who said he ran for the presidency as a gift for his daughters (What a thunder the Luo tribe of Kenya has brought on U.S!) Like Clinton, all Obama wants is to be appreciated and loved the world over by as many people as possible. These young (infants), post-Zenawi-on-David-Throne, 21st U.S presidents, be it Clinton, Bush or Obama, are phonies for the most part. They copy Kennedy, imitate other past figures, and pass as real thing with flying colors. The media-bombarded, Hollywood-enthralled and politically subjugated generation is sure thing to be up for political trickery. Watch those black & white newsreels of the last fifty years and you’ll see where these men found their style, and to a lesser extent, their less impressive substance. For those who could recognize certain traits, it was evident that during his thunderous campaign, Obama exhibited the oratory ways of MLK, Richard Pryor, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Mandela and other as yet to be recognized figures and dared the Right to a rhetorical fist fight. Obama is the exclamation point of Empire Decline chapter of America. He does not have the magic to pull this country from its ever vexing problems. He is, however, the answer to certain long held arrogant thinking of the West in general and American in particular. As a renown Ethiopian preacher has said, “When the history of superpowers whether the Roman Empire or U.S is written and re-rewritten, it is not their power, wealth or civilization that would stand out but rather their repression of the righteous….” Those repression/oppression have been evident to what happened to heart-bleeding Afro-Americans generation ago and currently to Ethiopians. As for Woefefe Quaddafi, he is undoubtedly the richest man on earth having amassed a personal/family fortune in the amount of trillions not billions (Forbes the Richest List: eat your heart out), so therefore, money once again speaks in English, French, Mandarin, Italian, Russian, Africanese….
Dear Andnen,
May Allah Bless You!! You nailed it right on the head. The problem that runs through various groups from own country is a heavy dose of self pity. It is always the other guys among their own ranks. Just ask any one of our known political groups why they couldn’t achieve their political objectives that will tell you the only reason is the other guy. It is so ridiculous that everything and everyone is their stumbling block. In a society where holding grudges and then settling scores in kind is the tradition, that you make think these groups will not hesitate to turn on anyone if they have the power to do so. Now, Obama is the whole reason and the only reason!!!! Leave this guy alone. He has to run a vast country with GNP of more than 14 trillion US dollars. We have to clean our noses first. We should not expect him to send his marines every time Africa coughs, every time Libya is having hiccups and lame duck individuals around the former CUD cry foul. It just makes you sick and tired.
Now the UN security council(with active leadership of the US, Britain, France and Lebanon) have imposed a no-fly zone over Libya. That includes all the necessary measures(covert and some overt military operations and mercenary surveillance flights, etc.) to protect the civilian population form the forces of Gaddafi who have been in power for the last 42 years and still wants to keep dictating by the use of force alone like always.
This way, brother president Barack Obama gained broad based international supports both from the UN, the EU, the Arab Ligue, the African Union, etc. Means a solid and broad based coalition and legitimacy.
It is not just a matter of putting on a huge cow boy boot to which a metal star and stripe are attached from both sides, close eyes and with great rage jump alone in to an unknown marshland just to realize that it is much more easier to jump in rather than being able to jump out. Such strategy did not work even for President Bush, so why repeat mistakes?
Great relief for the embattled opposition being on the run. Gaddafi and company must be in great panic and huge desperation as their hypnotizing and rising stardom is now facing a sure doomsday coming true. Araat Nettib!
Mogodi negn
TO tt7:
It is amazes me that you have skipped to read the post of this forum only then to the garbagge that you did.
Here is what you missed from Gud New @ 3:34 pm.
“To begin with, America should not interefer to any body’s business at the expenses of the Tax payers money. Any upsrising from any county should be within the means of the opposition, otherwise, no external power will do the job for you for free. The true freedom will come after the sweate and blood you shed. Freedom should be earned not begged.”
The Revolution will not be “Begged”.
Give me Bush 100 times than Obama who became a disgrace to all black race. he had a chance to do something big for the oppressed people of Africa and in general for the betterment of the human race but he plunder it due to his inferior complex and lack of leadership.
Now the Badwi mad dog is in deep creek. He has killed many hundreds possibly many thousands of civilians by now. The same goes to his punks-turn-thugs boys. The opposition also better clean up and become more cohesive. It must stand up in unison and look impressive. To me, so far they are more impressive. They picked up the same instrument the mad dog understands and showed him they can fight back in kind. I tell you they put our own, CUD, OLF, ONLF, EPRP, Meison, all kinds of ‘professors to shame. And some of you who cried out ‘racism is the only reason’ for our failure, you must be ashamed of yourself. When is the last time our opposition groups united and stayed united for more than a year or two? Every time you think they are and you go out for a bite, you will find them calling each other names when you return from lunch. And after that they will start mutating like cancer cells. One group giving birth to many. It is disgusting to us and to outsiders it is dizzying. They think political groups can be formed with just three knuckle heads. To spice it up they throw in one or two ‘phd’s. Then you have, Arat Killo Liberation Front, Hararghe-Aba-Jara-Islamic Salvation Army, Gondar Resuscitation Front, Arsi-Belongs-To-Kemal-Gelchu Front, We-Need-More-Missionary-Cakes-Organization, Women-Belong –To-The-Kitchen Mujahadeens, I-Have-Martyrdom-Fantasy-Ejected-From-Tigray-Leftist-Thugs-Parties, Amhara-Will-Rise-Again Organization, Oromo-People-Are-Germanic-People Front , I-Want-My-Turn-To-Steal Action Group and on and on and on. Imagine if Obama wants to hold a meeting with opposition groups from back home. It will take him more than a year just to shake hands to every one of them. He will be amazed and upset, guaranteed.
amen to that! sad we blame others than us to our problems. Obama just proved us that we got to take the big sacrifice to get our own freedom! he can only help, to what he can and afford!!! after all he got elected by the Americans to look after the interest of the AMERICANS! that definitely don’t make the atrocities committed by the previous admin forgettable. But he is Really making the right steps so far and we all shall take a page from that. Now,I feel the ethios are way behind in our “revolution” comparing to what Tunisians, Egyptians, and Libyans are doing (definitely short of guts). May be if the opposition had the 2005 momentum now than then, it might have a much more success. But some of us seem to give up in the cause, some were cheaters and some were chasing our own agenda despite the common cause. Now we blame others for our own failures. Really?! don’t we have more in common between us than than the Americans have between white, blacks, Latinos and Asians? The EU have between the Germans, Brits, French and Italians? or are we just that stuck in so-last-century that we all just need to be admitted to a rehab? we fight like WWI, we fight between tribes and religion affiliation like the colonizers planned 100s yrs ago with no understanding of the big picture! we farm, live and think like we did centuries ago, and our best friend is CHINA! i hate to say it but Meles will be ruling for another twenty something yrs. we are expert in growing and brewing great coffee but we need to wake up and smell it.