PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Friday through Sunday finds Barack Obama with a five percentage point lead over John McCain, 50% to 45%, in the presidential preferences of likely voters using Gallup’s traditional model. He enjoys a more ample 10-point lead, 53% to 43%, using Gallup’s expanded model.
Today’s traditional likely voters result, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 24-26, is identical to that reported on Sunday. Obama’s five-point advantage falls at the midpoint of the lead he has held with this voter model over the past nine days, ranging from three to seven points.
Obama’s 10-point lead among expanded likely voters matches his largest leads on this basis. It also ties his standing among all registered voters, who now favor Obama over McCain, 52% to 42%. (To view the complete registered voter trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
There are now eight days left before the election. History offers few examples of a trailing candidate mounting a successful comeback in the last week of the campaign. Gallup Poll presidential election trends since 1952 point to 1980 as the only case in which a candidate (Ronald Reagan) was behind in the Gallup Poll a week before the election, but went on to win the presidency. In 2000, Al Gore overcame a pre-election poll deficit in the final week to win the popular vote — but not the Electoral College.
Campaign and political events occurred in both the 1980 and 2000 races which, arguably, could explain the late breaking shifts. Without such a “you know it when you see it” issue or event emerging in the next few days, a McCain victory would be without precedent. — Lydia Saad
(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)
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I think it’s been almost two years since everybody talking about the 2008 election. Majority Ethiopians believe that, if McCain win the white house, it will be anther 3rd term of gorge bush administration. I feel the same way. But how come no body talking about if Obama win the white house we are going to face most probably anther bill Clinton administration? Maybe most of you going to asking me what is wrong with that? If you say so, I think you have bad memory. But if you asking me I don’t like to see anther similar to Clinton administration after what they did to Africans, especially to Ethiopia and Rwanda. How money of you remember when Clinton parsing fascist meles zanawe and issays? He was saying that how we Africans so laky to have this two yang and democrat leaders. While these tow fascists are killing million Ethiopians lift and right, especially thousands incent amharas. Clinton was talking shit despite human right watch report. I feel like Obama will do the same thing. If he is not worse. Anyway do you guys understand English Language? Or you gust lessening only pro Obama media like NPR, CNN.etc. I think that’s why you guys messed up. Obama supporters do you understand when Obama say “if I am president we American will never invade any country gust because they are dictator, we only going to war if our interest in danger “so whets make you to think Obama scarifies American interest for us. For Obama sadam husine (who kill millions Iraq) is gust a dictator so live him alone. If you do remember Obama was strongly against the removing of sadame husine. For Obama those two (black Hitler) fascist meles and issayas (who kill millions Ethiopians) are gust a dictator so live them alone. Even thou I hate those terrorist Somalis, I am so happy what they did to fascist meles zanawe army (the agzi). See my brother the Somalis did not weight tile Obama taking over the white house and stop the money giving to fascist meles zanawe then fascist meles cut and rune. No no no baby they start fighting as soon as fascist mele army (agzi) landed in their soil. Instead of doing the same thing. We cry almost the last 20 years. Stop blaming the united state of America for everything. Thinks god our grandparents did not weight outside help to fight fascist Italy. Can you imaging by now we will be head down whenever we walk in front of white people like fascist shabiy children.
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October 28th, 2008 at 10:21 AM