PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over John McCain in both Gallup likely voter models, according to Oct. 27-29 Gallup Poll Daily tracking. In the traditional model, which defines likely voters based on current voting intention and past voting behavior, Obama holds a 50% to 45% lead. In the expanded model, in which only current voting intentions are considered, his lead is 51% to 44%.
As in any election, the final outcome, in large part, hinges on who turns out to vote and who does not. If all registered voters participated, Obama would probably win comfortably. He leads McCain by 50% to 42% in the latest estimate of registered voter preferences, and has averaged a nine percentage point lead since Oct. 1. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Both likely voter models currently show a slightly closer race than is evident in the registered voter estimate. Obama has never trailed in either likely voter model since Gallup began tracking likely voter preferences in early October, averaging a four-point lead using the traditional model and an eight-point lead using the expanded model.
Just five days remain until Election Day, and McCain and the Republicans are campaigning hard in key states to try and change Obama’s lead. Late comebacks are rare, but have occurred, including Harry Truman in 1948 and Ronald Reagan in 1980. — Jeff Jones
(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)
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FORUM | 2 Comments
Miracle happens but not in Palin’s case. I have already started to celebrate. I like Obama only because he is son of an Immigrant and half black too. I donot expect a dramatic change in the policy towards Ethiopia because I know politics is different from policy. For those who expect change in Ethiopia I say don’t try to pass the dirty work for the americans because they are too smart to get their hands dirty. Work your ass off for change no one will care for you.
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October 31st, 2008 at 12:58 AM
Folks..Please do not believe the polls so blindly to start celebrating and do not be shocked if the results when they are announced on Tuesday night are to the contrary. Both candidates have enough fund and dedicated supporters to win. 600 Joe Plumbers can tilt the balance in favor of the underdog. I have this unabated feeling that Obama’s declaration of his tax policy where he raise taxes on income more than $250,000 can be his susceptible heels. Remember people in this income category mostly very hard working, aspiring and ready-to-move-up small entrepreneurs who jealously guard their net incomes. They hate to see their fragile cages rattled by rising taxes. Otherwise, if Obama wins it will be a very slight margin, one or two percent. It will be the same for McCain. Somebody to even this website wants to bet with me for a penny?!!!!!! Otherwise, see you on Tuesday.
God Bless You All !!!!!!!
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October 31st, 2008 at 3:30 PM