1) Ethnic policy favoring 6% golden Tigray race has caused enmity among the 94% leading Weyane to be paranoid about genocide
2) Economy and government budget is completely dependent on $4 billion annual aid--Weyane has a big boss now that it can't say no to
3) Widespread corruption that cannot be controlled as the survival of the system depends on paying off corrupt individuals from every ethnic group--Tigre, Amhara, Oromoa, Gurage, Somali, SNNPR...etc
4) Original TPLF is dead: It is now simply a corrupt enterprise. The true TPLF believers who fought for 17 years have abandoned it. Widespread animosty against Weyane even in Tigray (the Halafi Mengedi crowd)
5) Enmity from next door neighbor and cousins in Eritrea which waiting for Weyane's weakest moment to strike
6) Growing international recognition that it is corrupt ($3.3 billion stolen in one year alone!), committing genocide in Gambella and Ogaden, arresting journalists and others on "terrorism", selling land to Indians and Arabs after forcefully evicting the peasants, making up stories about Eritrean involvement in terrorism--all this eroding its legitamcy in front of it paymasters who give it monthly welfare check and food stamps
7) Promise and huge fanfare about building a huge $5 billion "Renaissance Dam" without any money or loan to pay for it forcing it to steal employee pay checks
Al Shabbab about to be eliminated in Somalia making its servant regime service much less useful to US and Europe9) Army that is weakend by ethnic animosty and original TPLF generals anger at corruption of Meles group
10) It has made promise to its bosses in US and Europe that it hand over Badme to Eritrea but many Ethiopians particularly from original TPLF say "over my dead body"
All this pressure is making Weyane behave in erratic and irrational manner. In desperation, Weyane may start a war and gamble that a major victory can shake things up. This is likely a desperate and suicidal move because once it has its hands full with a war, all its enemies will take it as opportune moment to strike including majority Ethiopians rioting, attempted mutiny by Amhara and Oromo army leaders, attempted coup by original TPLF generals, attack from Eritrea, Sudan helping Eritrea to avenge Meles calling for his elimination, and the West deciding that they should cultivate Ethiopian opposition for future puppet government and cut ties to Weyane.
