This is evidence why the OLF is and others are gathering in DC and other places. The problem that I see is, can the US actually controll the situation in Ethiopia once it begins to unravel? My guess is not. Ithink that is probably why UK envited Eritrea to the dismay of weyane that is actin paranoid. They are crying let's see if they envite you at the somali table

This is evidence why the OLF is and others are gathering in DC and other places. The problem that I see is, can the US actually controll the situation in Ethiopia once it begins to unravel? My guess is not. Ithink that is probably why UK envited Eritrea to the dismay of weyane that is actin paranoid. They are crying let's see if they envite you at the somali table

It has now become very apparent that the balance of power has shifted towards Eritrea, rendering the cornered TPLF mercenary regime a liability rather than a low cost asset for its western masters who are now scrambling to avoid a reckless war initiated by the slave regime that could, if left unchecked, lead to the total fragmentation of Ethiopia, hence threatening the economic and geo-strategic interest of western powers in the region. Getting rid of Zenawi regime to save Ethiopia is the name of the game.

The problem is can the US and allies place a new regime w/o the concent of those that are allied with eritrea and the once that want to determine their future i.e. Ogaden?

Japan Times: Ethiopia is an accident just waiting to happen.

Religion an increasing source of strife in Africa

By GWYNNE DYER
Saturday, Feb. 18, 2012


LONDON — Sudan was bombing South Sudan again last week, only a couple of months after the two countries split apart. Sudan is mostly Muslim, and South Sudan is predominantly Christian, but the quarrel is about oil, not religion. And yet, it is really about religion too, since the two countries would never have split apart along the current border if not for the religious divide.

Cote d'Ivoire was split along the same Muslim-Christian lines for nine years, although the shooting ended last year and there is an attempt under way to sew the country back together under an elected government. But in Nigeria, Africa's biggest country by far, the situation is going from bad to worse, with the Islamist terrorists of Boko Haram murdering people all over the country in the name of imposing Shariah law on the entire nation.

"The situation we have in our hands is even worse than the civil war that we fought (in 1967-70, which killed between one and three million people)," said President Goodluck Jonathan. That's a major exaggeration — the current death toll in Nigeria from terrorist attacks and army reprisals is probably only a few hundred a month — but the potential for much greater slaughter is certainly there.

In an interview with Reuters, President Jonathan said: "If (Boko Haram) clearly identify themselves now and say ... this is the reason why we are confronting government or this is the reason why we destroyed some innocent people and their properties, why not (talk to them)?" But it's pointless: He already knows who they are and what they want.

"Boko Haram," loosely translated, means "Western education is forbidden," and the organization's declared aim is to overthrow the government and impose Islamic law on all of Nigeria. In a 40-minute audio message posted on YouTube recently, the group's leader, Abubakar Shekau, threatened that his next step would be to carry out a bombing campaign against Nigeria's secondary schools and universities.

This is not only vicious; it is also completely loony. There is no way that Boko Haram could conquer the entire country. Only half of Nigerians are Muslims, and they are much poorer than the country's 80 million Christians. The Christian south is where the oil is, and the ports, and most of the industry, so that's where most of the money is too. The same pattern is repeated in many other African countries: poor Muslim north; prosperous Christian south.

There was no plan behind this. Islam spread slowly south from North Africa, which was conquered by Arab armies in the 7th century, while Christianity spread rapidly inland once European colonies appeared on the African coast in the last few hundred years. The line where Islam and Christianity meet runs across Africa about 1,100 km north of the equator (except in Ethiopia, where the Christians have the highlands and the Muslims the lowlands).

In general, the Muslims ended up with the desert and semi-desert regions of Africa because Islam had to make it all the way across the Sahara, while the more fertile and richer regions nearer to the equator and all the way down to South Africa are mainly Christian because the Europeans arrived by sea with much greater economic and military power. But some 350 million Africans live in countries that straddle the Christian-Muslim fault line.

There probably won't be a full-scale civil war in Nigeria this time around, but Boko Haram is targeting Christians indiscriminately. The Nigerian Army, not best known for its discipline and restraint, is almost as indiscriminate in targeting devout but innocent Muslims in the northern states that are home to the terrorist organization. Christians are already moving out of the north, and Muslims out of the south.

It will get worse in Nigeria, and it is getting bad again in what used to be Sudan, and Ethiopia is an accident just waiting to happen. Even Ivory Coast may not really be out of the woods yet. There is a small but real risk that these conflicts could some day coalesce into a general Muslim-Christian confrontation that would kill millions and convulse all of Africa.

Christianity and Islam have been at war most of the time since Muslim armies conquered half of the then-Christian world, from Syria to Spain, in the 7th and 8th centuries. There was the great Christian counter-attack of the Crusades in the 12th century, the Muslim conquest of Turkey and the Balkans in the 15th and 16th centuries, and the European conquest of almost the entire Muslim world in the 18th-20th centuries.

It is a miserable history, and in some places it is likely to continue for some time to come. But nowhere in sub-Saharan Africa does the frontier between Muslim-majority and Christian-majority areas derive from conquest: these populations are not looking for revenge.

Boko Haram's style of radical Islamism is an import from somewhere else entirely, and it would be a terrible mistake for large numbers of Muslim Nigerians to embrace it. On the other hand, it will be a terrible mistake if Nigeria doesn't get a choke chain on its army, whose brutal actions are all too likely to drive Nigerian Muslims in exactly that direction.


Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.

"USA already looks to post- Meles"? So? The man told you he will not be running for another term in office, didn't he? The U.S. looking for post-Meles is simply an exersice when dealing with a country engaged in a democratic process.

You're not dealing with a Dear Leader, President-for-life type, remember?

ahiyaw2.jpg (32.06 KiB) Viewed 2066 times

USA already looks to post- Meles Indian Ocean Newsletter N�1326 11/02/2012

18/02/2012

”Some Ethiopian opponents are convinced that the United States may have
already begun to discuss the succession of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.



The United States has already reportedly begun to check two options for what
could follow after Prime Minister Meles Zenawi: he could either rapidly
designate his own successor to prepare him for his role or he could
establish government of national unity before the end of his term. Such is
the belief of Ethiopian opponents who have had contacts with American
diplomats in Addis Ababa or in Washington. These diplomats have had talks
with the faction of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) headed

by Kemal Gelchu, with the Ginbot 7 group led by Berhanu Nega and with Daoud
Ibsa, the leader of another faction of the OLF who was discreetly invited to
Washington at the end of last year.



Several economic (higher inflation, rampant corruption) and political (the
recent sidelining of 300 officers including Tigrayan generals) factors have
led the U.S. officials to deem that Ethiopia is not immune to uncontrolled
social explosions, even if the EPRDF governing coalition has the situation
well in hand. Hence the idea that Meles Zenawi take the initiative to open
his government to some opponents such as Birtukan Mideksa or Seye Abraha,
who are currently undergoing training at Harvard University.



Failing that, the U.S. delegates reportedly suggested that Meles Zenawi
should plan the period after he is no longer in power and prepare his
successor, whether it be Tewodros Adhanom the current minister of health,
Arkebe Oqubay (advisor to the Prime Minister) or former Chief of Staff of
the Ethiopian army, the former General Tsadkan Gebre-Tensae who now works
for the UN in South Sudan. But Meles Zenawi is not believed to have favoured
either scenario.

The only solution for Meles Zenawi and Azeb Mesfin is two nine mm molded lead that eject out of some high speed spring projectile, preferably from a close range so as to limit the splutter effect. It is also advisable to make sure kids are not in the area when the projectile is released. It is also recommended for some people to be waiting for the incident, they need to carry a mop pail full of water to clean the potential mess from the warm red fluid.

Waiting for the US to make it for you is stupid at best. Always do your things fast enough for the US to follow rather than following the US. The former is more favored even by some exceptionally smart politicians in the US. Waiting for others to do what you can do on your own is considered a sin by Ethiopian culture. Vast majority of us have two arms and two legs with two eyes and a large white non-meaty stuff wired to make us do things, located between our two ears.

It is obvious that the U.S is grooming Birtukan and Siye for the after Meles or incase of some political and social explosion. Both Birtukan and Siye whom the U.S thinks could master a wide support or constituent in Ethiopia are in the U.S now for free education and grooming. would they be any different than Meles? yes to only defuse the tribal tension, but for the rest, they will be just puppets.

It is obvious that the U.S is grooming Birtukan and Siye for the after Meles or incase of some political and social explosion. Both Birtukan and Siye whom the U.S thinks could master a wide support or constituent in Ethiopia are in the U.S now for free education and grooming. would they be any different than Meles? yes to only defuse the tribal tension, but for the rest, they will be just puppets.

The School of The Americas, a boyscout summer camp for future dictators, where Seye and Birtukan are rumored to be attending, has produced many of today's fine dictators in Latin America, Asia and Africa.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtZcjt28 ... ge#t=3643s

Semira,

I do believe that Meles will be replaced with his own choosing for a simple reason. He can not abscond with the millions he stashed overseas if Birtukan/Sye take power. Birtukan, Sye worse or any other opposition member will try to bring him to justice even if he fled the country or they will try to freeze all of his assets. He can only leave behind an accomplice to the crime hence his own choosing. Otherwise, it will be bloodshed. The snake is not that stupid.

Peace