It's been six days since it was alleged that Isaias is dead, but so far there is not official merdo. Why is that? Is he really dead, or is he playing dead?

I am beginning to suspect that Isias and Meles have secretly agreed to return Badme to Eritrea through an Eritrean surprise attack. Such an attack will fully succeed, because it will be aided by Meles and his loyal generals.

So the idea is to allow Shabia to retake Badme, then to present the people of Tigray with a fait accompi. The only people in Ethiopia who care about Badme are the Tigres, nobody else cares, so if Shabia liberates Badme, with the help of Woyane of course, who in Tigray will dare to dislodge Eritrean forces from Badme without the help of the rest of Ethiopia? Never forget the kind of carnage that occured in Feb. 1999 to dislodge Eritrean forces from Badme, I don't think anyone in Tigray has the stomach for that kind of horror again.

What is the purpose of the recent spate of kidnappings in Tigray? Is it to move troops away from the Badme area under the guise of protecting Tigrayan civilians from kidnappings elsewhere? That way weakening Badme's defenses to make it easy for Shabia to quickly and easily liberate Badme?

Back in march there was an Eritrean website called Ruba Ansaba, which reported of Woyan-Shabia talks in March 20 in Germany. Is that where Meles and Isaias agreed the best way to return Badme to Eritrea is through a Shabia surprise attack, aided by Woyane?

Is Meles going to give a stand down order to the air force when Shabia attacks Badme? Just this week 39 non-Tigrayan loyal pilots replaced the Tigrayan pilots who might hesitate when a stand down order is given.

Earlier this year 13 Tigrayan generals and hundreds of officers were forcibly retired. Are those the ones who would have resisted the idea of Shabia taking Badme by force?

Also recently Woayne big wigs went to the town of Badme to tell the residents that Badme must be returned to secure foreign aid. that is the clearest proof Woyane wants to return Badme to Shabia.

Also the recent killing of foreign tourists by Afar rebels could be tied to this opertaion to return Badme to Shabia.

The recent Woyane attack against the Ethiopian opposition groups were ignored by Eritrea, because it was done by mutual agreement to eliminate the now obsolete anti-Woyane opposition.

Once Badme is liberated by Shabia, if half of Tigray refuses to accept the surrender of Badme, it will face a lonely civil war that excludes the rest of Ethiopia.

If this theory is true, then both Tigray and Ethiopia have never faced more dangerous times in thier history, this truly will be a perilous undertaking. Even if Eritrea manages to liberate Badme, the celebrations will be short lived, because the disaster that will develop in Ethiopia will eclipse everything.

So many contradictions in your analysis and it is pure dull since I can easly summarized it with single phrase..."what if shabia and woyannie made a peace"? Otherwise you fully aknowledge that bademe had never been part of ethiopia. I regret wasting my time reading this full of craps you called it analysis/speculations of yours.

So many contradictions in your analysis and it is pure dull since I can Walt summarized it with simple phrase..."what if shabia and woyannie made a peace"? Otherwise you fully aknowledge that bademe had never been part of ethiopia. I regret wasting my time reading this full of craps you called it analysis/speculations of yours.

They can't make peace unless Woyane withdraws, but as we can see Woyane can't withdraw its troops because they would disobey the order. The only way to make them withdraw is by the combination of force and betrayal. Of course this is just a speculation. But one thing is clear, if Isaias is dead or alive, the fact can not be hidden for more than a couple of weeks. If a surprise attack is planned, it must occur in the next two weeks, between May 6 and May 12, on May 24 Eritrea might celebrate its independence with its troops in control of Badme.

Comformist, I don´t know where U got this from but it looks like it´s cooked in ur brain and very far fetched. First of all, for Eritrea, it´s not a matter of taking Badme by force or not. That issue is very simple. For Eritrea, it must put into consideration, the negative consequences of doing so. "The interntional community", lead by the US would take that as a blessing in disguise to highlight the false picture it is painting around the world, of Eritrea being a rougue state disturbíng its neighbours and consequently punish it at will. This is the danger Eritrea wants to avoid at all costs. Why not wait until, what has already been resolved, becomes a reality on the ground than start a war ( eventhough within our rights) and be hounded.

Secondly, if the weyanes seek a fait accompli, it´s easier to tell their people "the US and our other powerful masters are forcing us to accept the verdict, so we must!" Isn´t that a very very, short cut?

So many contradictions in your analysis and it is pure dull since I can easly summarized it with single phrase..."what if shabia and woyannie made a peace"? Otherwise you fully aknowledge that bademe had never been part of ethiopia. I regret wasting my time reading this full of craps you called it analysis/speculations of yours.

You read the whole "crap"? You must be desperate without the guidance of your dead godzilla

Comformist, I don´t know where U got this from but it looks like it´s cooked in ur brain and very far fetched. First of all, for Eritrea, it´s not a matter of taking Badme by force or not. That issue is very simple. For Eritrea, it must put into consideration, the negative consequences of doing so. "The interntional community", lead by the US would take that as a blessing in disguise to highlight the false picture it is painting around the world, of Eritrea being a rougue state disturbíng its neighbours and consequently punish it at will. This is the danger Eritrea wants to avoid at all costs. Why not wait until, what has already been resolved, becomes a reality on the ground than start a war ( eventhough within our rights) and be hounded.

Have you forgotten, the Americans have repeatedly demanded Badme be returned to Eritrea, so have the British and the European parliament. In fact, despite Eritrea's lack of skills in diplomacy, the entire world has demanded Badme be restored back to Eritrea. Woyane leaders too want Badme to be returned to Eritrea, as they made it clear a while ago. The only people who are opposed to the restoration of Badme are the few arrogant Tigrayan chauvinists who would resist this by force. So if Meles betrays the Tigres and allows Shabia to liberate Badme, it is the will of the Americans, the British etc..., they all would have agreed to it in advance in secret.

Secondly, if the weyanes seek a fait accompli, it´s easier to tell their people "the US and our other powerful masters are forcing us to accept the verdict, so we must!" Isn´t that a very very, short cut?

No this will not work, because a few weeks back the Woyanes told this very thing to the Tigrayans and the had no success, so there is a likelihood Woyane-Shabia-the West have agreed to restore Badme back to Eritrea by a sneak attack. But remember, this is a speculation based on some of the evidence I saw, it is not a fact. Also if we get the merdo that Isaias is dead for sure, then this may not happen. But if I saias is alive and he is spreading the rumor, then I think something big is about to take place in early May. I think the Agamess are about to be screwed royally.

It's been six days since it was alleged that Isaias is dead, but so far there is not official merdo. Why is that? Is he really dead, or is he playing dead?

I am beginning to suspect that Isias and Meles have secretly agreed to return Badme to Eritrea through an Eritrean surprise attack. Such an attack will fully succeed, because it will be aided by Meles and his loyal generals.

To get badme Issyas has to play dead? Unlikely. I don't think both sided want the Badme issue to be resolved. It is the tool to divert attention for both sides whenever things get hotter inside the country. If both side serious about it it could have been resolved by now peacefully or by war.

Woyane leaders too want Badme to be returned to Eritrea......The only people who are opposed to the restoration of Badme are the few arrogant Tigrayan chauvinists who would resist this by force.

There are no people who oppose the restoration of Badme to its rightful owner. Chenawi is holding onto it because he thinks it is a fine piece on the board game. The all famous Weyane brinkmanship. The menta-libi cultural trait. It is a high stakes game which you think you will win and which I think makes you delusional, foolish and callous. Time will tell who is right, but I suspect it is not going to be you.

As far as the Eritreans are concerned Woyane would not last a single day without the support of the West. So why would they talk with the Woyane (the mail man)?? Very unlikely, indeed.

It's been six days since it was alleged that Isaias is dead, but so far there is not official merdo. Why is that? Is he really dead, or is he playing dead?

I am beginning to suspect that Isias and Meles have secretly agreed to return Badme to Eritrea through an Eritrean surprise attack. Such an attack will fully succeed, because it will be aided by Meles and his loyal generals.

To get badme Issyas has to play dead? Unlikely. I don't think both sided want the Badme issue to be resolved. It is the tool to divert attention for both sides whenever things get hotter inside the country. If both side serious about it it could have been resolved by now peacefully or by war.

I didn't say Meles wants to restore Badme to Eritrea, he has no choice, if he refuses to give it back he will lose all the foreign aid. But he can't simply order his troops to withdraw, so all he has left is to tell Shabia the locations of all the troops, the armor and artillery, then Shabia will take them all out with pin point accuracy and and will march into Badme easily. That's my speculation, which might or might not happen.