It's been six days since it was alleged that Isaias is dead, but so far there is not official merdo. Why is that? Is he really dead, or is he playing dead?

I am beginning to suspect that Isias and Meles have secretly agreed to return Badme to Eritrea through an Eritrean surprise attack. Such an attack will fully succeed, because it will be aided by Meles and his loyal generals.

To get badme Issyas has to play dead? Unlikely. I don't think both sided want the Badme issue to be resolved. It is the tool to divert attention for both sides whenever things get hotter inside the country. If both side serious about it it could have been resolved by now peacefully or by war.

I didn't say Meles wants to restore Badme to Eritrea, he has no choice, if he refuses to give it back he will lose all the foreign aid. But he can't simply order his troops to withdraw, so all he has left is to tell Shabia the locations of all the troops, the armor and artillery, then Shabia will take them all out with pin point accuracy and and will march into Badme easily. That's my speculation, which might or might not happen.

Do you think the rest of Weyane Gang will let it happen? Melse may have some of the big guys beside him but I don't think the majority will side with him on this one.

I didn't say Meles wants to restore Badme to Eritrea, he has no choice, if he refuses to give it back he will lose all the foreign aid. But he can't simply order his troops to withdraw, so all he has left is to tell Shabia the locations of all the troops, the armor and artillery, then Shabia will take them all out with pin point accuracy and and will march into Badme easily. That's my speculation, which might or might not happen.

Do you think the rest of Weyane Gang will let it happen? Melse may have some of the big guys beside him but I don't think the majority will side with him on this one.

That's why a fait accompli is necessary, once Shabia liberates Badme, there is nothing Woyane can do since it was already legally judged by the EEBC to be Eritrean territory. On what grounds would the Tigrayans wage war to drive Shabia out of Badme once it is an accomplished fact? Shabia would be sitting on his own land.

Have you forgotten, the Americans have repeatedly demanded Badme be returned to Eritrea, so have the British and the European parliament

What have you been smoking, my friend?




--------------------------------------------- ETHIOPIA TO REMAIN ENGAGED IN ALGIERS PROCESS --------------------------------------------- (C/NF) A/S Frazer asked what would have been the consequences of dropping out of the Algiers Agreement. Meles noted that had Ethiopia dropped out of the Algiers Process, it would not have changed Ethiopia's position to remain committed to avoiding conflict with Eritrea. Dropping out would have consolidated hard-liners within his own government who advocate a tougher line with Eritrea and the U.N., and confused the Eritreans. Meles opined that there has been no renewed border war because Eritrean citizens believe Ethiopia has no design to take over Eritrea. This has induced Eritreans to flee to Sudan and Ethiopia to escape the harsh conditions and mandatory national service in Eritrea. Dropping out of the process could have sent a confusing message to Eritrea and raised tensions along the border. ¶22. (C/NF) In consultations with the UN Secretary General's office, Meles said Ethiopia agreed to welcome and host the entire UNMEE force should Eritrea continue with its fuel restrictions and limitations on UNMEE operations. This would be for the short term and that over a longer period, Ethiopia expected to see UNMEE transition into an observer mission and that they could operate entirely from the Ethiopia side. ¶23. (U) A/S Frazer cleared this cable. YAMAMOTO

All I can say is Conformist has plenty time on his hand and he is clueless about the situation in Badme visavis Eritrea and Weyane. There is speculations and there is reality. Reality is Badme is Eritrean no matter how one wants to spin it and make a mambo jumbo out of it. La causa chiusa!

So many contradictions in your analysis and it is pure dull since I can Walt summarized it with simple phrase..."what if shabia and woyannie made a peace"? Otherwise you fully aknowledge that bademe had never been part of ethiopia. I regret wasting my time reading this full of craps you called it analysis/speculations of yours.

They can't make peace unless Woyane withdraws, but as we can see Woyane can't withdraw its troops because they would disobey the order. The only way to make them withdraw is by the combination of force and betrayal. Of course this is just a speculation. But one thing is clear, if Isaias is dead or alive, the fact can not be hidden for more than a couple of weeks. If a surprise attack is planned, it must occur in the next two weeks, between May 6 and May 12, on May 24 Eritrea might celebrate its independence with its troops in control of Badme.

i expected you to live up to your nick name. otherwise change your nick from " conformist" to " speculator" or else.