By Katrina Manson in Nairobi and William Wallis in London, Financial Times

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c45e4b88 ... z234GqqO7h

The prolonged absence of Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s usually hyperactive prime minister, has sparked a covert succession struggle at home and prompted fears farther afield for a future without one of east Africa diplomatic and security linchpins.

Government officials say Mr Meles, who has not been seen in public since mid-June, is recovering from a serious illness, but they deny opposition rumours that he is dead or dying at a hospital in Brussels.

An African Union official said Mr Meles had been in regular contact with Thabo Mbeki, South Africa’s former president and AU envoy to Sudan, during recent negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan. He has told AU officials he will be back next month to play a more hands-on role in the next leg of negotiations.

His absence has nevertheless launched a covert succession struggle that threatens to fracture the regime and expose ethnic faultlines at home at a time when the Horn of Africa is struggling to stave off fresh conflicts and overcome terrorist threats.

“We are very concerned about developments in Ethiopia, knowing how fragile the politics are there and the fact there is no clear successor,” Raila Odinga, neighbouring Kenya’s prime minister, told the Financial Times. He admitted that he and other regional leaders were in the dark on Mr Meles’s state of +health.

While Ethiopia is a small contributor to regional blocs such as the AU in financial terms, the Ethiopian premier’s vision and diplomacy has ensured the country has remained central to security affairs in a region threatened by terrorism and conflict. He has also become the voice of Africa on wider issues such as climate change and development.

“The competence vacuum [without Mr Meles] will be serious,” says Mehari Taddele Maru at the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa.

“Ethiopia plays an important role of balancing,” says Mr Mehari, pointing to Ethiopia’s pouring cold water on Uganda’s backing for South Sudan earlier this year, a provocation that threatened regional havoc after South Sudan had invaded a Sudanese oilfield, Heglig.

Mr Meles’s government has twice sent troops into Somalia to fight Islamist militants with US support and regularly brokers deals between fractious neighbours.

“Imagine if that influence is not maintained…Will there even be consensus on Somalia at the AU without him? If it was not for Ethiopia, the Sudan/South Sudan border conflict that erupted on Heglig could have turned into regional war.”

The Ethiopian leader’s adroit diplomatic abilities, honed in the 21 years since he led a Tigrayan guerrilla army to power in Addis Ababa, have furthered his pan-African role and he remains able to muster international support despite grave misgivings over his human rights record at home.

He presents a determined front welcomed by the west even though the regime has long suppressed dissent, closed newspapers and in 2005 shot dead dozens of protesters after elections marred by fraud returned him to power.

“Ethiopia avoids becoming a pariah like Burma because it’s so important to the west in the fight against Islamic terror in Somalia,” says a senior western diplomat who knows Mr Meles. “It is a dictatorship which will keep the people essentially close to the poverty line but charms people like Tony Blair and Bill Clinton.”

Mr Meles announced his intention to retire from office several years ago and had been preparing to step down before the next elections, according to regime insiders. But they say his continued stay has been motivated partly by his desire to outlive his arch-rival, Issaias Afewerki, president of neighbouring Eritrea.

Even government-associated officials now acknowledge Mr Meles may have to step down sooner, saying the deputy prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegne, who is also foreign affairs minister and a technocrat groomed by Mr Meles, would take over.

The country is led by a notional coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, in which Mr Meles’s Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, the guerilla group from northern Ethiopia with whom he came to power, holds sway. “There will be no power vacuum, no political problem in the absence of the party,” insists Abel Abate, a researcher at a state think-tank in Addis Ababa. “Due to the federal system of government, no group or person will take over power. There is no strong man just like Meles in the front.”

But while regime stalwarts insist the party is stronger than Mr Meles himself, critics stress he has constructed an almost exclusive hold on power, firing senior military figures and stacking the military and intelligence echelons with young officers loyal to him alone. Succession is likely to bring strife to Ethiopia’s elite.

Other possible contenders for leadership include the minister of health, Dr Tewodros Adhanom, who is popular in the west, Ethiopian diplomat and senior TPLF cadre Berhane Gebre Kristos and Azeb Mesfin, Mr Meles’s wife.

The TPLF leadership is “campaigning against each other right now”, says Hailu Shawel, an opposition leader previously imprisoned by Mr Meles’s regime. “When somebody has moved the country from a party base to an individual person [Meles], how can you overcome that? Everybody wants to be that dictator.”

An African Union official said Mr Meles had been in regular contact with Thabo Mbeki, South Africa’s former president and AU envoy to Sudan, during recent negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan. He has told AU officials he will be back next month to play a more hands-on role in the next leg of negotiations.

But if he was in regular contat with Thabo and the South Sudan envoy, why was it difficult for him to announce his well being to the "Ethiopian people"? At the least, audio evidence. Something is iffy about the whole quote.

His absence has nevertheless launched a covert succession struggle that threatens to fracture the regime and expose ethnic faultlines at home at a time when the Horn of Africa is struggling to stave off fresh conflicts and overcome terrorist threats.

“We are very concerned about developments in Ethiopia, knowing how fragile the politics are there and the fact there is no clear successor,” Raila Odinga, neighbouring Kenya’s prime minister, told the Financial Times. He admitted that he and other regional leaders were in the dark on Mr Meles’s state of +health.
.....
“The competence vacuum [without Mr Meles] will be serious,” says Mehari Taddele Maru at the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa.
.....
The TPLF leadership is “campaigning against each other right now”, says Hailu Shawel, an opposition leader.

Interesting but not meaty.

But if he was in regular contat with Thabo and the South Sudan envoy, why was it difficult for him to announce his well being to the "Ethiopian people"? At the least, audio evidence. Something is iffy about the whole quote.

It is difficult for a dead frog to announce his well being. Even if he is still alive it is hard to announce his well being when wired up with feeding tube. You know how hard it is to speak wile a feeding tube is in your mouth?

By Katrina Manson in Nairobi and William Wallis in London, Financial Times

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c45e4b88 ... z234GqqO7h

Meles Zenawi, hyperactive, east Africa's diplomatic and security linchpin, his vision and diplomacy, the voice of Africa on wider issues, the competence vacuum will be serious, imagine if Meles' influence is not maintained, If it was not for Meles the Sudan border conflict could have turned into regional war, the Ethiopian leader’s adroit diplomatic abilities, he presents a determined front welcomed by the west, has been preparing to step down before the next elections, possible contenders for leadership include the minister of health, Dr Tewodros Adhanom, who is popular in the west”

All these superlatives for the mediocre frog in one short newspaper piece, this is what the west does to confuse fools like conformist. Andargachew Tsige is the only politicians who sees through Meles' mediocrity. People should follow Tsige's lead in their evaluation of the deceased frog.

Could this article be a part and parcel of a broader CIA operatives to shape public opinion, as someone has suggested, and to buy some more time for the TPLF regime to again consolidate its power base?

As someone above indicated, the whole article sounds "iffy." If Meles has been able to maintain continuous contact with the President of South Africa, why can't he produce a one-time, very small video footage of himself to proof to us he is still alive? The other "iffy" idea is the discussion of Meles coming back next month to become involved in the South Sudan situation. The idea of "Meles will back next month" orignated from the TPLF clique. It has already been a month since they said that. Now, Financial Times is adding another month to that?

Financial Times, the bottom line here is, we the real people of Ethiopia are done with Meles and the TPLF regime and we are done with the Adhanoms, the Gebremeskels, Geberekristoses, and Goitoms. We need another Ethiopia with Aberas, Kebedes, Regassas, Tolossas, Asegedeches, and Wurgesas, etc.

NO MORE TPLF AND ITS CRONIES. BEKA! ENOUGH IS ENOUGH! PERIOD! DO YOU UNDERSTAND THAT?

The voice of the real people of Ethiopia!

The Financial Times quotes an AU official regarding making contacts with the ailing Meles Zenawi.

AU is known for issuing lies in support of the regime in Ethiopia. When asked about the 2005 elections, the AU officlas said it was a fair election when the hundreds of observers from the European Union concluded that was not a fair election.

The AU is again caught lying about the health status of Melez, their buddy.

I would be surprised if it is none other than Bereket Simeon who masqueraded himself as an African Union offical to the gullible Financial Times reporter. We all know that the idea of Meles being back next month originated from the Office of the Ethiopian Ministry of Miscommunication that is led by Bereket Simeon.

Article synopsis:

Meles was a great puppet. He is very sick and probably not coming back. We in the West are worried that we won't find as obedient a replacement puppet but we are hopeful. The End.

Could this article be a part and parcel of a broader CIA operatives to shape public opinion, as someone has suggested, and to buy some more time for the TPLF regime to again consolidate its power base?

As someone above indicated, the whole article sounds "iffy." If Meles has been able to maintain continuous contact with the President of South Africa, why can't he produce a one-time, very small video footage of himself to proof to us he is still alive? The other "iffy" idea is the discussion of Meles coming back next month to become involved in the South Sudan situation. The idea of "Meles will back next month" orignated from the TPLF clique. It has already been a month since they said that. Now, Financial Times is adding another month to that?

Financial Times, the bottom line here is, we the real people of Ethiopia are done with Meles and the TPLF regime and we are done with the Adhanoms, the Gebremeskels, Geberekristoses, and Goitoms. We need another Ethiopia with Aberas, Kebedes, Regassas, Tolossas, Asegedeches, and Wurgesas, etc.

NO MORE TPLF AND ITS CRONIES. BEKA! ENOUGH IS ENOUGH! PERIOD! DO YOU UNDERSTAND THAT?

The voice of the real people of Ethiopia!

Point #1. It is very sad, inhumane and immoral for western countries to befriend a dectator to keep their interest in palce.
Point #2. A fake person is always fake regardless of his statuse in society. A point incase is Meles and his friends. They don't even have the decency and mentality to be a little creative and come up with some way of showing what is happening to Meles could happen to anybody and what he needs is prayer and support. But since they know they are unwanted they just keep fighting the news.
Point #3. I am sick and tired of this western ignorant news papers and so called political analysts talking about Meles being the key player for the east African peace at different fronts and yet they still know how dictatorial and murderous his regim is. How paradoxical and ignorant is that? in a way they are saying as long as he does what is good for the west we don't realy care what he does to his own people.

In conclusion:- Meles and his fake regim which by the way is full of wayanes (Rebel fighters) will fall and their fall will be harder than any government we have seen before in Ethiopia. The reason is simple they are rebel fighters who couldn't transform themselfs as effective leaders. They are still thinking with their rebel mentality. THEY WILL GO BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT WANTED BY THE PEOPLE THE ONLY THING THAT IS KEEPING THEM IS WESTERN STUPIDITY AND IGNORANCE.