By KJETIL TRONVILL, UNIVERSITY OF OSLO
In the near future, I do not see any changes of policy either from the EPRDF’s side, or from the international side versus Ethiopia: it will be business as usual.
The donor group will embrace the result and the process, as it gives continued legitimacy for their cooperation with EPRDF, and the many difficult questions regarding democratic substance and respect for human rights can be brushed aside, as long as they can use the superficial technicalities of the process as window-dressing for ‘continued democratisation of Ethiopia’ – and thus justifying the billions of dollars spent on the regime.
For the Ethiopian public, the result will not signal any immediate changes either. The EPRDF will probably continue developing its totalitarian structure, with compulsory party membership for anybody who will be interested to pursue public employment and advancement within the country.
The result will probably have most effect on opposition politics. Some of the old-timers in opposition have earlier expressed that this time will be their last shot in elections. If EPRDF do not accept a level playing field, they will give in. This attitude might have changed, but I still think a cut-back to 10 percent of seats or so to the opposition will be a hard blow to carry for many of them. This will surely shake the foundations of Medrek, which might split up into two or more opposition platforms; as part of a blame-game of the election failure.
The result might also be used as a argument for the opposition groups which argue for a tougher more confrontational — or even military — opposition tactics towards the regime; as they can claim that the democratic space is too restricted for them to come to power via the ballot box.