By Shimekit Debalke
Over the last couple of weeks or months, I have been carefully listening to, watching, and reading conflicting messages about the importance and timeliness of a popular uprising in Ethiopia to topple the TPLF-led regime.
Some people argue that the “Jasmine‖” and “Nile Revolutions” that successfully took place in Tunisia and Egypt, respectively, will not be applicable to Ethiopia. Their argument centers on the fact that Tunisians and Egyptians are more literate. But, literacy is only one factor for successful revolution. There are other important ingredients of a successful revolution – unison, patriotism, resoluteness, vision, and a common goal. If literacy is even given undue emphasis, we Ethiopians have enlightened and experienced individuals in the academia, public service, civil society organizations and other walks of life who are courageous and gallant.
Others argue that the military in the Arab World is more enlightened and neutral. I strongly believe that the army in Ethiopia will draw an important lesson that if it continues to support this regime in suppressing the inevitable peoples’ revolution, its fate will be endangered in the aftermath of the successful revolution and Ethiopia will no more consider it as a national army. So the army must be for us, not against us. I understand that the military officials at all levels are from Tigray. But, the rank-and-file of the army are recruited from all ethnic groups and will never shoot their own people down. The rank-and-file of the army are tired of their racist bosses.
Others argue that the Ethiopian youth might not be able to have sufficient access to social media (such as Facebook and Twitter) since all communications are controlled by TPLF. Probably more than social media, revolution requires organization and commitment. Popular uprisings in Georgia, Ukraine, and other nations have been successful well before the advent of any social media and even of the internet. There was no internet when gallant Ethiopians such as Walleligne Mekonnen and Tilahun Gizaw were shaking the Haileselassie regime during the 1960s. There is no need to be obsessed with the importance of social media and neglect other techniques and strategies. I am not downplaying the importance of social media for the uprising. It is a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition.
Others argue that if a popular uprising is called upon, Zenawi’s police, security forces and the military will respond with brute force. I want to remind TPLF officials about John F. Kennedy’s quote ((if at all they read it):
Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.”
For the last 20 years, we have been arrested, marginalized, dehumanized, and murdered by the regime. What are we waiting for? Can we express ourselves freely? Are we equally treated before the court? Aren’t we in continuous frustration of extra-judicial arrests? Generally speaking, we are in mass detention center under TPLF. The detention center is Ethiopia itself and the prison guards are TPLF thugs and gangs.
Others still argue that if a regime change takes place, some ethnic groups will claim secession. In its 20-years stay, TPLF has been successful only in one thing – that is, creating a misunderstanding among different ethnic groups, encouraging one ethnic group to take vengeance against the other ethnic group – a “divide-and-conquer” principle which the British used during the colonial period. Nonetheless, be cognizant that after this regime is dismantled, Article 39 of the TPLF/EPRDF “constitution” will no longer be in effect to be used by some ethnic groups as a pretext to raise the question of self-determination up to secession. The current”constitution” does not represent Ethiopian national interest and it is TPLF’s political programme solely designed to support “Eritrean independence” and create the Tigray Republic (though they have not sufficient and necessary resources to secede and are still busy amassing resources to make their nightmare a reality). Don’t’ worry! There will be national reconciliation to address both individual and group/ethnic rights – no fear for disintegration after the revolution. If we tolerate TPLF administration any more, we will disintegrate.
Thus, we Ethiopians have strong justification to ignite a revolution probably more than any other nation in the world – leave alone the Arab World.
Needless to say, we are in abject poverty and are fed up with Zenawi’s development/growth propaganda. The economy has fallen victim to Meles’ insatiable families and loyal groups. Probably incomparable to other countries, we Ethiopians are deprived of the indivisible and inalienable human rights — civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights. All the draconian legislations passed by the most unpopular “Parliament” in the world, including the NGO Legislation, the Press Law, and the “Anti-Terrorism” Law are all meant to suppress any opposition and plural thoughts. Recently, the government has frozen the assets of the two indigenous human rights organizations – Ethiopian Women Lawyers’ Association (EWLA) and the Ethiopian Human Rights Council (EHRC). Meles has narrowed the political space to the extent possible and declared a one-man rule. The deprivations in Ethiopia are countless both in depth and width.
Let me bring here Ernesto Che’Guevera’s quote about revolution: “It is not necessary to wait until all conditions for making revolution exist: the insurrection can create them.” The upsurge should be as peaceful as possible. Let me, however, remind you of Fidel Castor’s quote: “A revolution is not a bed of roses. A revolution is a struggle to death between the future and the past.” However, we should devise a mechanism to achieve our goals with no or minimum blood and sacrifice. We have no moral justification to be scared by the Woyanne cliques. They will immediately be inundated and engulfed by gallant Ethiopians storming from all walks of life. This regime does not have a public base. It is solely based on thugs and gangs who are good to endanger our national interest.
Finally, Let me pinpoint some strategies for our struggle (you can improve them since the list is not exhaustive):
1. Share our overall plans to prominent international media, social media professionals and owners, prominent human rights groups, the UN, the US, the UK, and other freedom-loving nations.
2. Disseminate brochures, leaflets, and posters at hotspot areas. (In Addis Ababa: Piazza, Stadium, Sidist Kilo, Arat Kilo, Amist Kilo, Anbessa Bus Stops, regional bus stations, high schools, and universities. In regional cities: high schools, universities, and bus stations). This can effectively be done at nighttime recruiting street adults – be, however, cautious that some of these street adults might be Woyanee informers!
3. Move underground as the EPRP (Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Party) did 30 years back to ignite the revolution. Hold underground consultative meetings with high school and university teachers in very small groups and exchange information through email, SMS, or call by using code names.
4. Launch the uprising in major towns such as in Addis Ababa, Adama, Hawassa, Bahir Dar, Dessie, and other perceived opposition strongholds. This may then be spread to Addis Ababa.
5. Assure the police and the army that it will not be dismantled when regime change takes place as a result of the popular uprising by any means available, especially during the revolt.
6. Once the uprising is ignited, let us stay together at the streets, churches and mosques. If we go back home in the night, the Woyanne security forces will come to our homes and take us to jails.
7. Refrain from any ethnic and religious insult throughout the period of the uprising. Woyane thugs will incite this to abort the revolution – be cautious!