This is Ethiopian Review Policy Research Center’s series on From Dictatorship to Democracy extracted/quoted from books and articles published by Albert Einstein Institution and similar sources.
Unfortunately, the collapse of a tyrant is not a time for a reduction in vigilance. Even in the event of a successful disintegration of the dictatorship, careful precautions must be taken to prevent the rise of a new oppressive regime out of the confusion.
The collapse of an oppressive regime will be seen by some persons and groups as merely the opportunity for them to step in as the new masters. Their motives may vary, but the results are often approximately the same. The new dictatorship may even be more cruel and total in its control than the old one.
The dictatorial structures will need to be dismantled. The constitutional and legal bases and standards of behavior of a durable democracy will need to be built.
No one should believe that with the downfall of the dictatorship an ideal society will immediately appear. The disintegration of the dictatorship simply provides the beginning point, under conditions of enhanced freedom, for long-term efforts to improve the society and meet human needs more adequately. Serious political, economic, and social problems will continue for years, requiring the cooperation of many people and groups in seeking their resolution. The new political system should provide the opportunities for people with varying outlooks and favored measures to continue constructive work and policy development to deal with problems in the future.
- Even before the collapse of the dictatorship, members of the old regime may attempt to cut short the defiance struggle for democracy by staging a coup d’état designed to preempt victory by the popular resistance. It may claim to oust the dictatorship, but in fact seek only to impose a new refurbished model of the old one.
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It should not be forgotten that Meles Zenawi may get back from his death bed and rule once again to hasten to fruition his cherished dreams of dismembering Ethiopia and making off with his clique of Eritrean Tigreans with the riches they have ammassed.
China seems to be favourably disposed towards Meles, conscienceless and tacit and ready with unattached money!
The recent purposeful and cruel movements of hundreds of thousands of people from regions in the south should be seen as only the beginning of a new momentum to the age old dream of doing away with Ethiopia . This drive to create ethnically pure or depopulated regions may,to the naive look like a simple money grab. It is part of a sophisticated plan by the Eritrean-Tigreans to finally order people back to where they belong ethnically lest they be killed.
The naive may still think America would not allow this! If only some of those people knew America would not value a 100,000 Ethiopians as the head of an Alshabab fighter.
Fear this wicked person coming back. He will exact vengeneance for every day that Ethiopians did not hear him lie, or villify their identity or dehumanise them with. Pray this man does not return! But dont expect a caress from the tender hands of the rest of his clique whose identity has been steeled with their notoriety hating Ethiopia.
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peace Reply:
July 20th, 2012 at 10:44 am
U.s and UK are only advancing their interests so in fact they in deep soon to be at war with Iran including Israel. So what their concern is Ethiopia’s strategic place. The West is also is not at strength in anything anymore so while we talk with West, we should focus on others who could support us such as China, Russia, Japan, India etc. we should not just sit at idle see Ethioia crumbles, as hisotry tells us Uk and U.S are afterall supported and still is supporting the divisive TPLF and gave it blessing for disintegrating Eritrea. Most probably they will support Greater Tigray as well. The only way is also to turn to American and British, the people are good people even though they themselves are facing problems there are many friends of Ethiopians, also don’t forget Jews will help also.
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The health of an individual is a private affair. I am not asking Meles Zenawi’s family to tell us about his health situation. What we all know now is he has been admitted to Saint Luc University Hospital in Brussels, Belgium a couple of days ago. What we know is this same hospital is where he is going yearly or semi annually for check up.On the last public picture of Meles Zenawi at G20 gathering in Mexico on June 18 he has lost weight and looked very pale. He must have gone to deep crisis mentally or otherwise since he was humiliated in Washington, DC on G8 gathering a month ago, on May 18 . Those who are in medical field can help us understand the impact of “sudden shock” on someones health condition. Is it the Abebe Gellaw Factor that brought Meles Zenawi to the current situation ? Did Meles go to Mexico to show that he was in control ? That was a big miscalculation for “smart” leader.
The ruling elites/mafia after Meles No Show on African Union gathering this past weekend were forced to admit that their prime minster is ill but in good condition. Ethiopian tax payers are paying the bill and it is important to know how much so far his medical expense cost poor Ethiopia. The man who is known for not missing worldwide events can not disappear from his backyard unless he is seriously sick.
If Meles Zenawi is on “forced vacation” as alleged by Woyane Website Aiga yesterday after it wrote a piece sounding like obituary, the damage has already been done. The minority elites are planning a new chapter without their “Genius” Meles Zenaw to rule Ethiopia forever. They try to rally their few supporters that they are going to carry Meles Zenawi “Vision”. Work for the interest of foreign powers at the expense of Ethiopia on their way enriching themselves. If any friction to come it might be only on the Loot !!!!
The West/East will keep closely working with Ethiopia without Meles Zenawi. They will pump money to get more money and continue with their diplomatic support. The Ethiopian people have to sacrifice more to get their freedom because there is no one for them except themselves. If Syrians has yet to succeed after sacrificing in tens of thousands why should we be different ? We have to match the Talk with Walk. We should not apologize for anyone in carrying arms. Is it not the West/Saudi now who is shipping arms to the Syrian oppositions ? Who is to be called a terrorist ? The fighters or Assad ?
Woyane will only be forced to give power if it see bullets flying all over Ethiopia. Let the bullets fly all over Ethiopia to bury Woyane once and for all. With or without Meles Zenawi Woyane remains anti Ethiopia and pro foreign powers. If we love our country let us join the armed struggle Now !!!
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Your call for careful precautions to be taken at this critical juncture are timely, as your concern regarding the possibility of a coup d’etat to impose a refurbished model of the old one is wise.
The essay “Ethiopia at crossroads: What’s to be done?” by Neamin Zeleke, posted on Ethiomedia is equally commendable. Generally speaking, the popular debate taking place these days is relatively constructive and encouraging.
However, as we live in an increasingly globalized world, our debate should also take geo-political realities into consideration. Recognizing the extent to which western powers could go to assertain their national interests would be wise. In this regard, caution may be required when addressing sensitive issues such as “the massive Muslim protests shaking the country’s dictatorship”.
Western powers concerned with political Islam in the Horn of Africa must be convinced that the humongous national task of uprooting the minority ethnic dictatorship imposed on the country by Meles’ TPLF is being carried out by the entire Ethiopian people in unison. Rightly or wrongly, these powers believe that the present Ethiopian population is 64% Christian and 36% Islam.
We should be congnizant of the fact that these powers have no special love for the Meles dictatorship save their belief that it is a reliable ally in the fight against Islamic fundamentalism. It can’t therefore be difficult to foresee how these powers are likely to react against, not only the loss of what they perceive a reliable ally, but also the possibility of the emergence of political Islam in its place.
This by no means should be construed as an intent of denying Muslim Ethiopians their freedom of doctrinal choice. Ethiopian Muslims should be persuaded to accept that they will equally be beneficiaries of such cautions.
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peace Reply:
July 20th, 2012 at 11:04 am
From the beginning the Western powers should not support division instead of unity which leads to unity, strength therfore work with Ethioia with stable Ethiopia. However, TPLF campaigned on dividing Ethiopia and disintegrating Ethiopia. WE not West should be blamed for this to allow them to gain power, we should have ousted them with mass protest when they are fresh, don’t and have no clue who is who in Ethiopia because they came from jungle in the name of Tigray and Eritrea not Ethiopia. Perhaps we have to learn the hard way because we are paying for it today. While roaming news on global websites two things alarmed me:
1. People who comment on such sites on Ethiopia that is now head lines everywhere, they are syaing “Ethiopia will be Sharia law”, “Ethiopia is now Muslim nation”, etc. This tells me there is organized plan to implement Islam in Ethiopia?
2. Other news how developing nation chrisitans are being opressed with the support of West. Perhaps Eastern Chrisitans? History tells us that Orthodox faith is becoming extinct. Assyrians and Armenians and Egypticans were ethnically cleansed by Muslims. Most Eastern Orthodox are dirt poor like us. The only country that is on its last leg is Russia that most used to be communists anyways. In former Yougoslavia, the West definitely supports Muslims over the christians. This says a lot about TPLF and EPRDF are fast converting Orthodox Ethioipans into Islam and Evangelism. This is worrisome. How can it be called faith when you are forcefully converting people? Apparently Orthodox is not favored by most Western christians then sad. We are not even allies with Russia anymore besides Ethiopian Orthdox is unique to its own although it could be similar with mostly Armenia. Oh, there Greeks have been viciously opressed by Turkey and now economically attacked. Is it coincidence? Let us think about this.
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