The Indian Ocean Newsletter (ION), whose sources include French intelligence officials, has just published an analysis of what is next for the Meles regime in Ethiopia. The ION agrees with Ethiopian Review’s prediction that the genocidal regime is now setting its sight on Asmara after emptying the rubber stamp parliament in Addis Ababa of any opposition. The following is posted from the current edition of ION:
Zenawi wants to turn the page on 2005
For Several months Prime Minister genocidal dictator Meles Zenawi has been actively working to protect his position in the 23 May general election to turn the page on the insult in 2005 when the opposition won the poll in the capital. He succeeded beyond his hopes: the turnout was reported to be a massive 90% of the 32 million electors registered, with 95% of them voting for an EPRDF (governing coalition) candidate. The opposition was annihilated by this vote. The federal parliament was already a chamber to rubber-stamp government decisions; it will now become a place where no voice of discord is tolerated. The systematic intimidation of opponents and the widespread usage of State institutions and funds for the EPRDF election campaign are the main reasons explaining this outcome. Nevertheless, by closing the door on the legal opposition, Meles Zenawi is de facto putting his regime on track for a one-party State. The only people to be pleased by the outcome will be the armed opposition, which thus sees the justification of its prediction that any attempt at legal change in Ethiopia is doomed to failure.
Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde
Sophisticated and suave when he is in international circles, a supporter of the free-market when it comes to the economy, Meles Zenawi has remained very inflexible on matters of domestic policy. He has been reinforced in this view by his experience in the 2005 election, when he found that giving lee-way to the opposition mainly profited the latter. Since then, he has constantly repeated that he would not renew the experience and putting his money where his mouth is, has done all he could to restrict the opposition’s political space. International donors are generally little aware of this “dark” side of the Ethiopian prime minister, which regularly makes its appearance in meetings among EPRDF dignitaries that he generally chairs in an authoritarian manner. In one of them, at the beginning of May, attended by several ministers (Addisu Legesse, seyoum Mesfin, Bereket Simon, Tefera Walwa, and others), he accused the legal opposition parties (Medrek and OFDM) of being infiltrated by illegal organizations (Ginbot 7, OLF, EPRP) and had called for them to be investigated. He even went so far as to say the same about ANDM (the Amhara component of the EPRDF), some thing which Tefera Walwa opposed stating that the difference between Meles Zenawi’s TPLF and ANDM did not mean the latter was an opposition Trojan horse.
Intimidated and humiliated opponents
Since the vote on 23 May, the prime minister has threatened everyone who dared to criticize the conditions and results of the general election. In his view, the warning is equally valid for the opposition leaders and for European Union observers. The African Union observers as usual had nothing to report on the elections they observe. Anyone considering calling for the vote to be invalidated was warned that he risks imprisonment. But on the other hand, Meles is fully aware that the non-re-election of most of the opposition leaders will give his regime a major problem. Consequently, secret negotiations are underway to give the opposition a handful of seats. EPRDF representatives contacted Merera Gudina to promise him a recount and to be elected to parliament if he distanced himself from the other opponents. He has so far declined this offer. A post in government was similarly promised to Lidetu Ayalew. For his part, fearing arrest, Beyene Petros asked during a Medrek meeting on 24 May that the opposition coalition no contest any election results until they have sufficient evidence of irregularities.
Heading for Asmara
Meles Zenawi will no doubt not leave matters there. He will try to push home his advantage, not only against the legal opposition but also against the various Ethiopian rebel groups that are waging sporadic armed struggle against his regime (OLF, ONLF), backed by Eritrea. That is probably the reason the EPRDF leaders keep insisting at the moment that an Eritrean opposition conference that had been on the cards for years should finally be held in Addis Ababa in July. Their idea is to put the conditions in place as soon as possible that could lead to a future overthrow of President Isaias Afwerki.
17 thoughts on “Meles heading for Asmara? – ION”
I guess he finally wants to make the process of his end much shorter. He´s like those serial killers one sees on TV who want to get caught. If he starts a war against Eritrea, he´s finished.
True analysis. President Isaias Afwerki has to work hard with the Arab world. Iran would be a good choice for obvious reasons. Any attempt alone will simply be a failure. It is also time for him to mobilize and armed all ethiopian opposition parties. As long as he does these, any attempt by TPLf will lead to nowhere but to their demises
Oh!!!!
Every one is tiered of this bla….blas.
I think they have already seen the Eritrean ppl on Geneva, Melborne, Washington and Sanfransisco stand together against the unjust sunctions. So this collections of bunch of traitors gonna do nothing. Eritrean ppl are united together as ever since.
I really doubt that Meles is crazy enough to wage war against Eritrea. As for the Ethiopian opposition groups, I guess you should put aside your differences and fight for the just cause. That is: independent judiciary, multi-party system, division of power, freedom of speech and such. We have to tolerate each other above all things. This has to start from our local communities to churches and mosques. I have a feeling that the majority is frustrated. We should do everything possible so that the majority will trust us one more time. Those who steal money from organizations must be punished severly by any means.
Simply pathetic and laughable!!
Support the Patriotic Front and the Eritrean president now! Never expect Woyane will bring Democracy to Ethiopia. To think like this is a wisdom of a fool.
Boy Oh Boy,
Mr. 99.666% has gone nuts. I believe that he has reached at the end of his course. He thinks the Eritrean card would work like it did in 98 to wipe up support. Boy he can not be far from reality. I seriously think they are at the end of their helm. The indications are all over, not by force but the law of nature. Paronia has set in. Time has come.. I hope bloodless.
Aye Weyane! I guess the Americans must have promised him something to contemplate doing a suside mission? Wey ye Itiopia amlak, cherneth yet ale?
Mewdekhiachew Derese ! Iski Yjemruna Inyachew .
As For Eritrean opposition …… Mela inmta , mela inmta …
they are going to unite for 19 time ….. and next year for
THE 20 TIME !!! BLA BLA BLA …….
( Have you ever seen a bad commercial on TV )
For the ethiopian opposition ….. A dream come true !
Meless will not wage war against Eritrea. However, he will use the Eritrean oposition groups as a bargaining chip to settle the boarder problem with Eritrea. He can not leave office without settling the boarder issue and that is what he is going to do. It is his bad lagacy that he needs to close. I expect the implicit negotiation to start within a year or a little more.
An open war against Eritrea is something that Meles don´t want in this time. He is clever and by seeing the world is not ready to even punish Eritrea the best he can do is trying to get in talk with Eritrea. Otherwise the faster he starts war against Eritrea the more likelier his downfall. Now after he is the only one ruler of Ethiopia, it´s easier to pull out of Eritrean territory than to wage war against Eritrea.
The result of the election says it all.
therefor for any opposing party what is left is only an armed strugle .
I will thank on this occasion to all peace loving party who choose to oppose peacefully and give time and time for a dialogue.However the only option left is to remove this menace through a properly armed force.That is the only way left and surely those who love and put the country first will follow this path.
The day of Woyane is near finshed and it is good for Ethioians oppostion and they must take this advantage.This is the right time to all.
I read the topic and thought that you were going to report that meles is moving to Asmara his money and family for retirement there. That is where he belongs and seems to prefer Eritrea than Ethiopia. So, please stop scaring your readers, the last thing he wants to do now is start a war against his beloved Eritrea. He said it clearly many times the war against Eritrea in 1998 was against his wish. In his own words he supported it because it was “the will of the party”, and remember 2010 is different than 2000 when at that time the anti-Eritrea group has power in the say-so of Woyane, but at this time that group is crashed. So all the shabiaa opposition support and else is just for show. the truth of the matter is Meles loves Eritrea than he does Ethiopia, so he will never start another war. and if it happens that would be the best thing that could happen to Ethiopia, since it will facilitate the down fall of the most enemies of Ethiopia and that is EPLF and TPLF.
Who publishes the Indian Ocean Newsletter? Are they reliable?
Response to comment # 15
It doesn’t matter the credibility of Indian Ocean. One thing is clear. The regime in power in Ethiopia has never show any acceptance of the Eritrean people existence as a nation or as a country. Well, everybody knows that including the TPLF regime can’t rule Ethiopia forever. They are heading to their grave with shame,guilt, and crime…… As a result they do not want to go peacefully…. instead they would like to inflict wounds on Eritrea. If war is the last option for them to stay in power, they are wrong, that will be their end. This regime is a cancer to the horn of Africa, especially to the Eritrean people as well as to Somalians and to the Ethiopian people. Melese and his followers should know better by now the 1998, 2000 wars didn’t bring any of their wish. Assab all the time belong to Eritrea !! Regime change in Eritrea proven to be unsuccessful attempt. Seems lesson not taken from previous unsuccessful wars. Like wise if TPLF planned war that will be the end of their dynasty for once and for all. This is the reality if war started.
the war of 1998 – 2000 was due to misleading the people of Ethiopia, it was totally deception and hurts both of us upto words cant explain, why war now? is the plan to destroy the people of ethiopia and eritrea, one thing is true now if we dont finish war war will finish us. And if there is no smoke with out fire the cause and if we believe meles is the cause of this disteblizing. lets wake up and distroy the fire. we have not to give this job to someone else, it is our duety to bring peace in east africa, we shoudnt simply sit up and watch while east africa our source of confidence is becoming a place of war. like afganistan.