Woyanne-Shabia conflict: The defeat of Woyanne means victory for Ethiopia

Ethiopian Review Editorial

Woyanne is currently engaged in a shooting war on multiple fronts. The worst fighting is going on in Ogaden with ONLF and in neighboring Somalia with the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). The news coming from these fronts are encouraging — the Woyanne military is getting its nose bloodied by the ICU and the ONLF freedom fighters. Woyanne is now about to open another front in the north — Badme. Woyanne and Shabia are amassing hundreds of thousands of troops in the area. According to various sources, a major war could start any time. The question for Ethiopians, particularly those of us who wish to see a united Ethiopia free from the Woyanne tribal junta, is what should be our stand?

There are two options:

1) Do not take side in the absolutely senseless war, or

2) Take an active stand against Woyanne by helping Eritrean, ONLF, OLF, and all the other anti-Woyanne forces. An active stand against Woyanne includes agitating troops not to fight, causing damages to Woyanne supply lines, etc. Blockading the road from Addis Ababa to Tigray alone would cripple the Woyanne military machine.

Ethiopian Review encourages the second option. Here is why:

1) Woyanne is the real enemy of Ethiopia that has left us land-locked. On top of that, it has been committing one atrocity after another against the people of Ethiopia for the past 17 years. In several parts of Ethiopia, such as Ogaden and Gambella, Woyanne forces annihilated whole villages of people. What is going on currently in Ogaden is a genocide by any standard. Not looking at the pictures of dead women and children whose heads are splattered by high caliber bullets from Woyanne helicopter gunships, whose bodies pulverized by Woyanne rockets does not lessen the horror of Woyanne atrocities. Woyanne must be stopped from carrying out these atrocities by any means necessary.

2) It is not the Eritrean regime, not the ONLF, not the OLF, not the ICU that had thrown over 100,000 Ethiopians in Zeway, Shoa Robit, Donkoro Chaka and other disease-infested concentration camps after stealing the May 2005 elections. It is Woyanne that ignored the will of the people and enslaved 70 million Ethiopians through its blood thirsty military machine that is currently busy wreaking havoc in Ogaden and Somalia. Woyanne has no mandate to govern Ethiopia, has no right to enslave us and must be removed by any means necessary.

3) As Woyanne moneyman Sebhat Nega himself said a few months ago on a Woyanne radio station, Woyanne has done more than Shabia for the separation of Eritrea from Ethiopia, leaving 70 million people landlocked. Notwithstanding the Woyanne propaganda, the impending Woyanne-Shabia war does not advance the national interest of Ethiopia an iota. It is war over a small plot of land that has no strategic significance for Ethiopia. It is a war that is intended to divert attention from Woyanne’s internal political crisis and the Somalia quagmire. Ethiopia can get back her sea outlet through a negotiated, mutually beneficial settlement with Eritreans. The only obstacle to such a negotiated settlement with Eritreans is the illegitimate Woyanne regime. For this reason alone, Ethiopian pro-unity forces need to help Shabia defeat Woyanne.

Let’s ignore the Woyanne propaganda for a moment and be frank with each other. Which is the lesser evil? Shabia or Woyanne? Both are brutal dictators, but who is currently tormenting Ethiopians? Both will not bring democracy to Ethiopia, but whose defeat will present an opportunity for change in Ethiopia?

If Woyanne wins against Shabia and all its opponents, for the people of Ethiopia it would mean more slavery at the hands of an emboldened Woyanne. If Shabia wins, it would mean no more Woyanne’s brutal rule. The best case scenario is for Shabia to break the backbone of Woyanne, which will force it to:

1) Immediately pull out of Somalia,
2) Pull its forces out of Ogaden, Oromia, and other regions of Ethiopia and rush them to Tigray to protect its base of power,
3) Seek reconciliation with Ethiopian opposition forces.

The most likely outcome

If Woyanne starts war with Shabia, this time it will lose for the following reasons:

1) Those troops who are not hardcore members of Woyanne will not fight the way they did in the 1998-2000 war. They will surrender or put down their weapons and run to Sudan. Even better, they could turn their guns against Woyanne officers.

2) Shabia will not engage Woyanne in a conventional battle of troops against troops, and thanks against thanks this time. What Shabia will do is let Woyanne come deep into the Eritrean territory, even all the way to Asmara. Then engage Woyanne’s over-stretched military in a protracted, guerrilla style warfare. With a well-coordinated propaganda campaign, most non-Tigrean soldiers could desert in massive numbers. Even Tigreans who are not hard core Woyannes would hesitate to fight. After all, what did Woyanne bring to the people of Tigray except more suffering, more war, more repression, and more poverty? Most of the developments in Tigray are benefiting only Woyanne members who are not more than 200,000 Tigreans. By all accounts, the 7 million Tigreans have not benefited from the Woyanne rule what so ever.

Most dictatorships have terrible ends. Hitler, Mussolini, Saddam, Chauchesku, Charles Taylor, to mention a few. With the way things are going on in Somalia, Woyanne’s end is already becoming messy, ugly and horrifying.