It is still unclear who gets real power in Zimbabwe deal

By CELIA W. DUGGER, The New York Times

JOHANNESBURG — Lovemore Moyo, a senior leader in Zimbabwe’s opposition, on Friday likened the opposition’s power-sharing deal with President Robert Mugabe, its bitter enemy, to a “sister sister” accord. His homespun metaphor left a critical question unanswered: If the two estranged and hostile sisters cannot agree on how to revive the economically devastated country, which one prevails?

A day after the agreement was announced — though with essential parts still undisclosed — opposition officials and Western diplomats acknowledged that they were in the dark. Though the accord is to be celebrated in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital, on Monday before an audience of dignitaries from across Africa, crucial elements have yet to be resolved.

Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition leader who is to become prime minister, and Mr. Mugabe, the 84-year-old president in power for 28 years, have until then to reach agreement on dividing the ministries between their parties and selecting people to fill the jobs.

Though time is short, Mr. Mugabe postponed a meeting today with Mr. Tsvangirai, according to a Western diplomat who met with Mr. Tsvangirai this morning. Nelson Chamisa, spokesman for the opposition, confirmed that the two leaders did not meet today and that the composition of the cabinet remained unsettled.

“Nobody knows these details, including myself, the spokesman,” Mr. Chamisa said. “They haven’t been resolved, but they’re going to be resolved.”

Negotiators for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change and the governing party, ZANU-PF, have jousted over an agreement since July. One irreducible issue had blocked a settlement until a day ago: Mr. Tsvangirai’s insistence that as the biggest vote-getter in Zimbabwe’s last credible election, in March, he should be in charge.

Under the compromise announced Thursday, Mr. Mugabe will remain as president in charge of the cabinet, while Mr. Tsvangirai will head a twin body of the very same ministers, known as the council of ministers, according to officials close to the talks. It remains to be seen which man will have the last word in setting policy.

David Coltart, an opposition senator and constitutional law expert who supports the agreement, acknowledged that the opposition still had a treacherous route to navigate in changing the government’s destructive economic policies.

“If there is a disagreement and there’s no consensus and Morgan tries to enforce it, Mugabe is still in charge of the cabinet,” he said. “You have a council of ministers, but it’s very unclear how it will work. It’s not clear it can dominate the cabinet.”

The cabinet will have 31 ministers, with 15 from the governing party, 13 from Mr. Tsvangirai’s party and 3 from a small opposition faction to which Mr. Coltart belongs. Political analysts in Zimbabwe said Friday that the success of the deal would largely depend on whether Mr. Tsvangirai did indeed wind up with real authority. Opposition officials were optimistic that he would.

“The deal will hold depending on who will have control of the cohesive machinery of the state,” said John Makumbe, a political scientist at the University of Zimbabwe. “If these are still in Mugabe’s hands, the deal will unravel, and we will soon be back to the negotiating table.”

Zimbabwe will also desperately need an infusion of foreign aid from wealthy Western nations. Inflation now runs at more than 11 million percent, and most people are out of work. When Zimbabwe turns to austerity measures in an effort to arrest the runaway inflation, it will need aid to feed and care for its millions of hungry and unemployed.

But doubts linger about whether Mr. Tsvangirai will have the clout he needs, when Mugabe loyalists are entrenched throughout the government. A great deal rests on the elements of power-sharing, to be disclosed Monday. “We’re waiting to see the final outcome of this deal,” James D. McGee, the American ambassador, said in an interview on Friday.