By Andrew Malcolm, Los Angeles Times
The final day before the official presidential voting and the final version of Karl Rove’s exclusive national electoral map sees a strong victory for Barack Obama, gaining the most electoral votes since Bill Clinton’s lopsided win over Bob Dole in 1996.
According to the research of compiled state polls by Karl Rove & Co., the hypothetical electoral college numbers suggest an Obama win over the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin of 338 electoral votes to 200.
For the final report, Rove has allocated each state to the candidate leading there in state polls today.
According to these calculations, Obama takes hard-fought Florida. But McCain edges ahead in Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and North Carolina.
Rove notes that Obama and McCain are in dead heats in North Carolina and Missouri, but the most recent polls over the weekend show a trend toward the Republican ticket. “Florida, too, could end up in McCain’s column,” Rove adds, “since he’s benefited from recent movement in the state.” But it’s not enough for the Arizona senator to capture the necessary 270.
For an explanation of the research methodology and for a chart showing the study’s movements week by week since July 1, click on the Read more line below. The Ticket’s appreciation to Rove & Co. for its permission to publish these polls simultaneously throughout the recent hotly contested months.
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.
For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 15, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a 3-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as tossups; states outside the 3-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.
There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.
Published by Top of the Ticket with permission of Karl Rove & Co.